How It Works
Advanced Statistical Approach
Mathematics and statistics are at the heart of everything we do at ProMathletics. In it's most simplistic form, this approach serves as a framework for which games have positive value versus the posted lines. The greater the implied value, the greater the percentage chance the system selected side covers the posted line. As the majority of our team works in finance, mastering an algorithm that would consistently provide us with a reliable measure of "value" became our obsession. It took us three and a half years of hypothesis testing and another year + of refining the actual formulas to get what has now proven to be reliable over 360+ games.
Our results speak for themselves. A lot of players in this space tout guaranteed winners and astronomical win percentages that have never been observed in any actual handicapping competition...they lie. The overall win percentage of our model is only a shade under 53%. This is, in fact, an expected and positive result.
Hear us out... Each week there are 16 games (less byes) from which to choose. In theory, all of the posted market lines would have a 50% chance of winning on the favorite and a 50% chance of winning on the underdog. That is bookmaking 101. We do not claim we can pick 100% winners or go 15-1 on any given week. What we do is find the specific games that have the highest amount of mis-pricing. Which games have a large deviation from what the intrinsic line should be based on the two teams versus the actual line posted that can be bet.
When we publish our picks we include a Green Zone (talking straight cash homie), Yellow (proceed with caution), and a Red Zone (bet these if you think you are better at flipping a coin than other people). Our philosophy is to only bet the green games and very rarely dip into the yellow if we feel there is noise in the data that is artificially suppressing or increasing the worth of one of the teams. Over the last two seasons, our Green Zone has consistently performed at 64%.