Who is ProMathletics?
You know the story… a couple buddies get together to bet on games, start a fantasy league, make March Madness picks... and think they are the best ones out there doing it. They eventually start to realize they don't have any edge over everyone else gambling and are subject to spurts of winning or, more oftentimes, losing and feel like they are betting just to bet without any increased odds of picking winners. These guys usually use phrases such as: "This team is due!" "This team has covered 3 of their last 4." "This feels like a trap game!" & "No way we lose 4 in a row!"
Our team was established in a similar fashion... a group of friends who grew up with each other or attended college together... with a couple key differences. Our 5-man team at ProMathletics are all former college athletes (4 football and 1 baseball) and all have Masters-level degrees. We developed a proprietary quantitative approach that has been proven to perform year in and year out. The model is not only created and maintained by a bunch of guys who look like nerds on a resume...but is also created and maintained by serious former athletes who understand the intricacies of the games.
Quantitative techniques have been employed by handicappers for many years, just as former (and sometimes current) athletes have wagered on sports they felt they understood better than most. What makes our mathematics based approach so powerful is our ability to utilize it as a framework while also making superior game selection within our high market value results.
Advanced Statistical Approach
Mathematics and statistics are at the heart of everything we do at ProMathletics. In it's most simplistic form, this approach serves as a framework for which games have positive value versus the posted lines. The greater the implied value, the greater the percentage chance the system selected side covers the posted line. As the majority of our team works in finance, mastering an algorithm that would consistently provide us with a reliable measure of "value" became our obsession. It took us three and a half years of hypothesis testing and another year + of refining the actual formulas to get what has now proven to be reliable over 600+ games.
True Value Calculations
Our results speak for themselves. A lot of players in this space tout guaranteed winners and astronomical win percentages that have never been observed in any actual handicapping competition...they lie. The overall win percentage of our model is only a shade under 53%. This is, in fact, an expected and positive result.
Hear us out... Each week in the NFL, there are 16 games (less byes) from which to choose. In theory, all of the posted market lines would have a 50% chance of winning on the favorite and a 50% chance of winning on the underdog. That is bookmaking 101. We do not claim we can pick 100% winners or go 15-1 on any given week. What we do is find the specific games that have the highest amount of mispricing. Which games have a large deviation from what the intrinsic line should be based on the two teams versus the actual line posted that can be bet.
When we publish our picks we include a Green Zone (talking straight cash homie), Yellow (proceed with caution), and a Red Zone (bet these if you think you are better at flipping a coin than other people). Our philosophy is to only bet the green games and very rarely dip into the yellow if we feel there is noise in the data that is artificially suppressing or increasing the worth of one of the teams. Over the last three seasons, our Green Zone has consistently performed at 64%