Westgate SuperContest Week 9 Recap

This week, the contest built on the success of week 8, posting the most successful week of the year, averaging 2.8 wins per entry.  The 56% win rate just edged out the previous high week of 55.8% in week 4.  You can see each week's success rate in the chart below.  There is now a lone entry in 1st place with 32 points, "Biosoft Global", while second place is secured by "Biosoft Sports" with 31.5 points.  It will be interesting to see the Biosoft strategy moving forward, as they have already begun altering at least two picks a week.  It's a little early for the hedging if you ask us, but they are in 1st and 2nd place, so what do we know.

 

The top 5 consensus  (Ind, Den, Dal, Atl, Lar) went 3-2.  However, the contest was helped greatly by the Thursday Deshaun Watson injury news, when Ind (+13) was already locked in. 1,627 entries ended up taking the Colts. The top picks are now 17-28 (37.8%) on the season.  Overall, the contest now sits at 48%.  We still feel pretty good about our prediction for the winning number being at 56 points, which would be about 66%.  You can see the full standings HERE.  

 

Both ProMathletics' entries, which picked the same selections, went 4-1 after the Bills decided not to show up on Thursday.   Our selections were (Buf, NO, Car, Bal, Ind). We took advantage of the Watson injury and got a late, backdoor, meaningless TD from Joe Flacco.  Joe is working hard to make up for previous L's he's handed us, with 2 straight covers. We now have 28 points and are tied for 43rd place.  That puts us at 62.2% and within striking distance of 1st.

 

You can see the dispersion of all the entries below.  The contest now has a negative skew around the average of 21.6 points.  There is a group out ahead of the pack, with 11 entries owning between 29.5 and 32 points.