Westgate SuperContest Week 13 Recap
We continued to see some mean reversion in week 13 in the SuperContest. The field averaged just 2.34 wins. We have just 20 picks left and we now predict the payout threshold will be 51 points or exactly 60%. As for the winning target, our current guess is 59 points or 69.4%. The good news for everyone is we predict 2nd place to be 56.5 or 66%. Remember, the top 100 get paid this year. You can find the payout structure HERE.
@PIGSKIN_JUNKIES (49) went 4-1 this week and is still way out in front of the pack, with a 2.5 point lead on the field. TEAM CLEVELAND 1 is now alone in 2nd, with THANKYA 32 and RUSH YYZ 2112 tied for 3rd with 46 points.
On the season, the field is averaging 2.56 points per week (51.2%) which is still slightly better than where we expect the field to finish. The top 5 consensus (NE, NYG, IND, PIT, ATL) went 2-3 for the fourth straight week. The top 5 picks are now 35-30.
The ProMathletics team continued our hedging strategy this week. We submitted 10 entries with our "real" picks and 8 with a straight hedge. Our picks for the week were Jax, Wsh, Bal, Hou, and Lac. We went 4-1. We now stand at 41-22-2 (65%) after 13 weeks and have 42 points in the contest, which puts us in 24th place out of 3,123 entries.
You can see the dispersion of all the entries below. 32.5 points is now the most common entry score. After 13 weeks, the average contest entry has about 2.56 points per week.