Week 7 - Thursday Night Football

We are back after a fantastic Week 6 where we stacked an incredible 34 units!  We put a nice little cap on our weekend with the Monday Night Football insight that proved to be fruitful, as well.  As a reminder, our full NFL slate always becomes available at 2pm EST on Saturday, but ahead of that, we have some yellow zone lean tonight.

  

The spread as published in The Westgate Super Contest is the home team Cardinals +1.5 against the Broncos.  The Cardinals, as in recent years past, have a top-10 level defense that is quietly keeping them pesky against the spread even though the vast majority of the public focuses on the offensive side of the ball.  We had them on the road last week in Minny with a line that shifted back and forth between +10 and +10.5.  The Cardinals stayed in the game and really, looking back at the film, should have lost by 7.  As published, they were +10 and a push in our season results.

 

Our models once again lean toward the value of having the superior defensive team, that's right, Arizona's defense is outperforming Denver, at home.  The thing that is preventing AZ from being a true GreenZone play is their atrocious offense.  If they just had anything that wasn't worst-3 in the league level, there would likely be enough value to fully back them.  Denver is without a doubt a more complete offensive team when strictly compared to the Cardinals.  What's more, if given a short field, like Minnesota was several times last week, the Broncos are good enough to put up some points in a hurry.  Arizona has 10 turnovers so far in 2018 and a lot of the scoring they have given up is a result of those turnovers.

 

The defensive edge of the Cardinals is a real thing and it will likely have us on them more times this year than the public would ever consider, but with this line of only getting 1.5 tonight, it's just not enough.  We lean AZ, but would only recommend an entertainment bet and not putting full units on them.  For live bets, anything AZ +6.5 or more should be considered and DEN +3 or more.


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