Week 6 Thursday Night Football - Eagles at Giants
RedZone Lean - Giants +3
This is a big game early in the season for both teams in an NFC East division that is wide open still. It isn't wide open because all teams are playing at a high level, it's wide open because there isn't a single team over the .500 mark after 5 weeks of the 2018 season. This division went 0-4 last week, highlighted by the complete no-show job by the Redskins as they let Drew Brees parade all over their asses on national tv.
From a purely statistical perspective, there is no significant value worth betting on at a spread of 3-points in favor of the visiting Philadelphia Eagles. We have multiple systems that work in coordination and they are split indicators, some in favor of the Eagles, some in favor of the Giants. The Eagles have played slightly better season-to-date and obviously had a much better 2017 season...data that still has pretty high influence in our modeling. That being said, they haven't outplayed the G-men by a wide enough margin to essentially justify being 6-point favorites on a neutral field. Philly is right at league average by our metrics and the highly efficient offense and explosive special teams that were weapons on the way to the Super Bowl have not repeated thus far. They have been dealing with a multitude of injuries at WR and RB, with Jay Ajayi being the latest casualty (torn ACL). The offensive line play has also dropped off from last year, but we think that may be a result of less balance running the ball because of the aforementioned injuries.
The Giants, despite the 1-4 record, have been a very similar team to the Eagles this year. They are actually better on offense and special teams and have lost some very close games. Last week, they showed what they are capable of, getting beat by a bomb of a last second field goal on the road against a very competitive Carolina Panthers squad. They have weapons for days, but the very poor offensive line play and Eli being Eli have bogged them down at times. Also, it wouldn't be New York if there weren't plenty of distractions and that is very much in play for this team at the moment. OBJ is subtly throwing shade at Eli and they just cut former 1st round LT, demoted to RT, Ereck Flowers this week. Not exactly a team on a stable foundation.
All things considered, gun to our heads, we'd take the home-dawg, Giants, getting 3 points in a divisional game against a team that has had very similar 2018 on-field performance. That being said, this is one you should stay away from or bet with greatly reduced size due to the lack of significant value. Just like last Thursday, we recommend waiting to see if one of these teams gets off to a smoking start and then trying to hop on the other side getting double digit points live...this should end up a 1-possession game.