Week 5 NFL Thursday Night Football
Seattle Seahawks (-1) at home with LA Rams
8:20pm EST - Fox/NFL Network
Play: Seahawks as a YellowZone lean...no units
This game is a little unusual in that our results are in one of the tightest groupings we can remember in the last year or so. We usually have a range of outcomes, but the data is bunched extremely tightly around Seattle -2 as our true intrinsic spread for this game. Obviously, that is pretty much on top of the market line of -1 and does not present meaningful value for us to back.
If we were forced to pick a side, we agree with the data. There aren't any real caveats in this one outside of the condensed week, which has historically favored the home team. Additionally, the Rams looked very out of sorts last week, getting beat at home by the Bucs. We aren't sounding the alarm bell on the Rams at 3-1...they are going to get things straightened out and are clearly still in a strong position to make the post-season. That being said, trying to correct that many mistakes with basically zero live practices, is no easy task.
We are going to hang tight and listen to the numbers of this being a true YellowZone. If you have a pick 'em league or are forced to get in the action, we strongly lean on the Hawks.