Week 4 Thursday Night Football - Eagles at Packers
Philadelphia Eagles (+4) at Green Bay Packers
Lambeau Field - Green Bay, Wisconsin
TV Coverage: 8:20pm on Fox
The 1-2 Philadelphia Eagles fly a little wounded into Lambeau Field tonight to take on the unbeaten Green Bay Packers. We are going to keep this one in the YellowZone, as our models have it as -1 to -2 in favor of the Pack, and that thinner margin of only 2 points of cushion has historically fallen into about a 54% win expectancy for us. Additionally, the Eagles have been pretty banged up so there is even a little more room for caution. They do get back Alshon Jeffery and Dallas Goedert (played just 9 snaps last week) tonight, but there is no certainty they will be at or near 100%.
With that rationale for why it is staying in our YellowZone out of the way, let's talk about a couple reasons this game is a strong lean for us and one you could take with a little entertainment play. Number value...yes, the 2-point margin (our -2 vs. market -4) is tighter than what we want out of a true GreenZone, but it doesn't take a rocket scientist to see that is crossing the ever important -3. Another reason we like it better than most Yellows is the funkiness of Thursday Night Football. These are extremely short weeks for teams that played the prior Sunday, but Doug Pederson has a demonstrated ability to get his team prepared. The Eagles are 4-0 on TNF under Pederson and 3 of the 4 wins came as underdogs. We aren't trend bettors, but coaching ability with long breaks (see: Reid, Andy) or short ones, is something that is a material variable in The League.
We'll hold off on the GreenZone plays until Sunday, but if you're in a pick 'em, or dying for a little taste to start the week, the Eagles are the way to go.