Week 13 Thursday Night Football - Saints at Cowboys Prediction

It's back-to-back Thursday games for both of these teams tonight, making for a more stable than typical analysis.  Typically, the short travel week introduces a fair amount of noise into the data, but with both of these squads playing on Thanksgiving last week, we are in the clear.  The only slight issue is the intrinsic value for this one falls into our RedZone.  We do not have significant value for either team vs. the Las Vegas Super Contest line of -7 in favor of the visiting Saints.  Our models see this as anywhere from a 4-8 point win by New Orleans, which makes it quite difficult to win with a 60% probability.  When simulations are coming back on both sides of the spread there just isn't any value.  But that doesn't mean we don't have an outlook on the game...

This is obviously a Saints play if you are in a straight up pick 'em pool and we do lean Saints if you are forced to make a bet or pick a side.  Our strategy is going to be to wait and see if there is any value with in-game or halftime lines.  If Dallas gets out to a 3 to 7-point early lead, this live line will come down to probably in the 3.5 to 5 range.  We will try to get some initial exposure placed around that 3.5 to 4 mark and then continue to dribble in if for some reason the Cowboys first half lead expands.  Most NFL offenses, specially at home, do very well on the initial scripts and it can often be a driving force for home dogs to get out to quick starts.  That is what we are hoping for tonight to be able to get some cheap Saints action in what is otherwise a properly priced game.

Speaking of price...we have reduced all prices on our football packages since we are closer to the end of the year than we are the beginning.  We are looking at potentially 6 GreenZone NFL games this weekend, so make sure you cash in the value with us by SIGNING UP NOW!