Week 11 Thursday Night Football - Seahawks vs. Packers Prediction

[6.6 Units] Seattle Seahawks (-2.5) vs. Packers

6.6 Units – SEA -3 or less

3.3 Units – SEA -3.5

No Action – SEA -4 or more

We are in the GreenZone once again on a Thursday night, but thankfully, this time it is on the home team with the short travel week.  As always, we trust our proprietary models' outputs in guiding us into the Green, but it's nice to have the travel caveats on our side to ease some of the nerves of going against Aaron Rodgers, which we've seem to have done quite a bit this year.  The reason for that is pretty simple, the banged up Packers offense isn't what it once was and the defense doesn't really have an identity.  The Packers will be without defensive starters Nick Perry (OLB), Kentrell Brice (S), and Kevin King (CB), as well as Randall Cobb at receiver, all of which did not even make the flight to Seattle.  Aaron Rodgers is still the most talented human quarterback on the planet (*does not include Patrick Mahommes), but there's no longer enough around him for this team to consistently get the job done on the road against good teams.  In fact, the Packers are 0-4 on the road in 2018.

   

The home team seems to be making the same sort of evolution they do at about the midway point in the season every year.  Yes, the Seahawks dropped their last two games, but those were not anywhere close to bad losses.  They played very high level football in all phases last week against a reinvigorated Rams squad.  We said they would cover, and they did, the fact that they lost the tight one-possession game did not hurt them in our metrics.  The Seahawks started the year in disarray on defense and upfront on the offensive line.  We have noticed a gradual increase in production by both sides of the ball and they are now basically top-10 in all three primary facets of measurement for us; offense, defense, and special teams.  They have all starters available outside of K.J. Wright, but even he will be a game-time decision and may get some packaged reps.

Our models see this as a 4 to 5-point game in favor of the Hawks.  The caveats and manual adjustments we make to the data include an injury situation that is a net positive to Seattle, a short travel week in favor of Seattle, and a primetime home crowd that will be fired up for a must-win game.  The raw data, plus the qualitative noise, make this one we can't pass up.  We LOVE it at -2.5 that it is officially published at in the Las Vegas SuperContest, but still think it's still Green at -3.  It should be a good game and a great way to kick off our Week 11 domination that is about to take place! 

If you are viewing this analysis as part of the free pick Thursday Night, make sure you sign up for one of our reduced priced football packages to end the season in the Green.