Week 11 NFL - Pick Recap
Another week and another 3-2. We continue the steady pace of 60% as Bal, Ind, and KC all cover for us in week 11. On top of the 3-2 our 4-game teaser hit for an extra 1.5 units for the boys. Below is out season-to-date results. We are due for some huge weeks. Strap in as we are about to destroy some bookies.
Week 11 Picks/write-ups sent to Subscribers:
Well, Week 10 turned out to be another week in the black, but it wasn’t the break out we have been patiently waiting for. The performance on Thursday night by the Steelers certainly didn’t help the warm and fuzzies heading into the weekend, but the data we have on the remaining four games is clean and we are optimistic we can pull out a juicy 4-1 week with a tease and parlay cherry on top. We got some more prime time action lined up as well, with us being on the SNF and MNF games this week…should be a fun one. Let’s go get that bread!
We are going with just a 4-team parlay and tease this week. We were trying to get the Redskins in there at -1, but with the actual market line having moved away from that by a material degree, we have to just roll with the 4 left:
0.5 Unit for both the parlay and teaser: BAL (-4), IND (-2.5), CHI (+6.5), and KC (-3.5)
[6.6 Units] Baltimore Ravens (-4) at home with Texans - Winner
6.6 Units – BAL -4.5 or less
3.3 Units – BAL -5
No Action – BAL -5.5 or more
The Baltimore Ravens got better during the second half of the 2018 season and that has continued over into 2019. If they continue to make improvements with the defense the way they did last year, they could very easily make a run and end up winning the whole damn thing. That shouldn’t come as any surprise after they dismantled the Patriots in a very public way just a couple weeks ago. They are better than the Texans on offense, defense, and special teams. Houston is still a strong team, coming in just on the edge of our top-10, but they don’t have an advantage in any phase of the game and the pass offense that can carry them at times is running into a very strong Baltimore pass coverage unit. Our models see this as about a touchdown game, so we are going to double dip on the Ravens again after they waltzed away with a snoozer for us in Cincy.
[6.6 Units] Indianapolis Colts (-2.5) at home with Jaguars - WINNER
6.6 Units – IND -3 or less
3.3 Units – IND -3.5 or -4
No Action – IND -4.5 or more
Welp, Brian Hoyer fucked us pretty good last week. Based on his lifetime data and showing in Pittsburgh two weeks ago, we thought the drop-off was reasonable enough for them to still maintain something in the ballpark of their 2019 baseline performance, but we missed the mark. That piece of noise has been removed from the situation now with Brissett officially being ruled the starter for Sunday after practicing all week. The back-to-back outright losses by the Colts definitely has turned the public against them, but the reality of the situation is they simply need to return to the output they had with Brissett playing and they will be fine. The Colts have the better defense taking the field and are at home in the dome for a very meaningful divisional game. If the first game we mentioned plays out as we hope, the Texans will have 4 losses and this AFC South is absolutely wide open. That is not going to be lost on these teams. We have the better defense, home field advantage, and a very meaningful game with two teams returning their starting QBs. We like Brissett and the boys to take care of business and put themselves in a tie for the division lead.
[6.6 Units] Chicago Bears (+6.5) at Los Angeles Rams - LOSER
6.6 Units – CHI +6 or more
3.3 Units – CHI +5.5
No Action – CHI +5 or less
The similarities between these two teams are immense. Both had amazing 2018 campaigns and looked like their young starting QB had got over a hump and were starting to enter their prime. With 5-4 and 4-5 records, it’s safe to say this season has not gone the way either franchise envisioned. The defensive side of the ball has lived up to hype for both teams, with both teams being on the tail-end of our top-5. However, both offenses have struggled and are ranked 20th or worse by our models. The Bears at least have the excuse of Trubisky being injured for a couple starts, but let’s be honest, it’s not like he’s looked particularly great during his time behind center, either. We put all of this out as background to simply say, these teams are about even on a neutral field. We have this game at a spread of 3.3-points in favor the Rams which is basically just the benefit of playing at home. This should be a tight game with the defenses dictating the action. We will take the free extra three points and hope the Bears take care of the ball enough to let their defense win this one for us.
[6.6 Units] Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5) in Mexico City against the Chargers - WINNER
6.6 Units – KC -3.5 or less
3.3 Units – KC -4 or -4.5
No Action – KC -5 or more
Our models have this game at a 7.3-point spread in favor the Chiefs on a neutral field. We typically try to avoid games played on foreign soil, but at least there is not the big time change that accompanies the London games. Similar to the Colts game, this one is very meaningful to the standings in the AFC West. Both teams come into the game with 4 losses and the winner of this one will leave Mexico with sole possession of 1st place in the division. We still have the Chiefs as a top-3 in the league team and think they will get the ship straightened out starting on Monday. The Chargers defense is suspect, to say the least, and they will be getting carved up at altitude by Mahomes who says this is the best he has felt all season. That’s not to mention he will have all his skills guys and likely will have the best group of starting linemen with Fisher practicing all week and Schwartz being questionable as well.