Week 11 Monday Night Football Prediction - Chiefs at Rams

[6.6 Units] Kansas City Chiefs (+3.5) at Los Angeles Rams

6.6 Units – KC +3 or more

3.3 Units – KC +2.5

No Action – KC +2 or less

 

The classic, mid-week, change the location of an NFL game impacted about 90k fans, but we don’t expect it to have that much impact on the Chiefs offense.  They still have the #1 offense in the league and according to our measurables, the #2 Rams offense isn’t even really that close.  Three and the hook in this game is a lot considering it’s basically impossible to stop the Chiefs from scoring.  Our models objectively see this game as a pick ‘em to a 1-point win for the Rams which creates a considerable amount of value for this one to be in the GreenZone. 

This should be an exciting game with a lot of scoring from two extremely well-balanced offenses that have two of the best young QBs and RBs in the league.  We've discussed the Chiefs offense at length this year, but it is still true...there just isn't any conceivable way to consistently stop them.  The blueprint by the Patriots is the best way to beat them...long offensive possessions to keep them off the field, confuse Mahomes into a couple of bad mistakes when he is amped up playing on the road against Tom Brady for the first time in primetime.  Oh wait, this game is in LA in front of a crowd that doesn't really give a shit and he's playing against another under-25 year old QB who he is already considered better than...hmm...that could be a problem for the Rams to execute.

The Chiefs defense is still not anywhere close to the level of the Rams, but they have been gradually improving as the season has progressed.  The fact that they’ve improved, combined with no Kupp for the Rams, should mean just enough stops by the Chiefs defense to keep this under a field goal.  The Rams front-4 is arguably the best in football, but the back-7 are leaving a lot to be desired, specially during the last couple of games.  The Chiefs will come out with an up-tempo, quick trigger, get the ball in space against these shitty LBs and DBs game plan that will likely make the Rams front-4 a moot point for large periods of the game.  We like the system value, we like the matchup, we maybe even like a dusting of some KC money line action…we’ll end the week on a high note and complete the 5-0 week with the Chiefs cover Monday night.