Week 1 NFL Winners
Those of you who have been riding with us for several years as paid subscribers know that Week 1 is typically a goldmine for those GreenZone plays. The board this week did not disappoint. We have 9...count 'em....9 plays this week that are all ringing the alarm bells on the system. Insights, betting value thresholds, and unit sizes for the weekend games are below... make sure to check back on Monday for additional commentary on the Giants and Broncos. Let's go get that crusty 2020 covid-laced bread, my dudes.
[6.6 Units] Jacksonville Jaguars (+8) at home with Indianapolis Colts
6.6 Units – JAX +7.5 or more
3.3 Units – JAX +7
No Action – JAX +6.5 or less
The world is convinced this Jags squad is tanking for Trevor, which may be true, but they still have professionals playing. Eight points is a ton for a home team in week one. Gardner Minshew is probably a league average QB and Phillip Rivers, with his tendency to make crucial errors late in games is also about replacement level at this point in his career. These defenses are headed in different directions, but the hype on Indy is overblown. They were a league average unit in 2019 and may be slightly improved, but not enough to warrant giving 7+ points on the road. This one should be closer to a 3-point spread. Take Jacksonville and collect when they lose in a tight game.
[6.6 Units] Los Angeles Rams (+3) at home with Dallas Cowboys
6.6 Units – LARM +0.5 or more
3.3 Units – LARM pk
No Action – LARM -0.5 or more
Our ratings have the Rams and Cowboys as basically an even matchup. As such, we believe this line should be Rams -2.5. You see it every year; “This is the Cowboys team that could finally win the Super Bowl again”. Guess what, it is not happening. However, the Rams did go to the title game two years ago. How quickly we forget this was once the most feared offense in the NFL. They have definitely regressed, but not enough to be giving points at home to a Dallas team that has consistently disappointed. This should be a good one on Sunday night to round out a profitable 1st Sunday.
[6.6 Units] Atlanta Falcons (+2.5) at home with Seattle Seahawks
6.6 Units – ATL +0.5 or more
3.3 Units – ATL pk
No Action – ATL -0.5 or more
Here is yet another game of pretty evenly matched teams where the home team is GETTING points. It appears Vegas has taken the traditional home field advantage of roughly three to basically zero. While we acknowledge no (or minimal) fans will have an impact, there are other factors that remain. The Seahawks are still travelling east across time zones and not sleeping in their own beds, which matters. We have Atlanta as two-point favorites and will gladly take any points the house is willing to provide. The Falcs and their 17 1st round picks will cover and probably win outright.
[6.6 Units] Carolina Panthers (+3) at home with Las Vegas Raiders
6.6 Units – CAR +3 or more
3.3 Units – CAR +2.5
No Action – CAR +2 or less
The books seem to have no idea of what to make of the 2020 Panthers. Will they be awful or just slightly below average? We tend to lean towards the latter, which would put them close to on par with an average Raiders club. To be sure, Teddy Bridgewater will bring some stability to the quarterback position, which hasn’t been the case in Carolina in a few years. They also have one of the best players in football in Christian McCaffrey. Meanwhile, the Raiders will still be trotting out Derek Carr and his tiny cat paw hands. This is an even game, so we’ll take the points at home.
[6.6 Units] Cincinnati Bengals (+3) at home with LA Chargers
6.6 Units – CIN +3 or more
3.3 Units – CIN +2.5
No Action – CIN +2 or less
We know the Bengals are not going to be good this season, but we don’t see the case for the Chargers improving over a 5-11 2019 campaign. Tyrod Taylor taking over for Phil Rivers is not the evidence to make that point either. Their defense looks scary on paper, but the reality is they are only slightly above league average and will once again be without Derwin James. While the Bengals will be throwing rookie Joe Burrow to the wolves, but he will have some decent weapons to help get him acclimated to the league. Mixon, Green, and Boyd will certainly help take some of the pressure off in what should be a close one. Give us the points and we’ll take Cincy at home with 6,000 fans.
[6.6 Units] New York Jets (+6.5) at Buffalo Bills
6.6 Units – NYJ +6.5 or more
3.3 Units – NYJ +6
No Action – NYJ +5.5 or less
"Can the Jets somehow be worse in 2020 than they were in 2019?!", that's the question you need to be asking yourself when your fingers are shaking trying to hit the "confirm bet" button on this one. The Jets struggled for a large part of last season, but they lost by 1 against the Bills to open the season and beat the Bills by a touchdown in Buffalo to end year. These are divisional foes who know each other well and the system sees this game under a field goal. There is a lot of roster and coaching staff continuity year-over-year, so we have no other choice but to trust our numbers and take the points.
[6.6 Units] The Washington Washington's (+5.5) at home with Philadelphia Eagles
6.6 Units – WSH +5.5 or more
3.3 Units – WSH +5
No Action – WSH +4.5 or less
The Washington Football Team’s defensive line is downright scary. With the addition of Chase Young, the front for is now Young, Jonathon Allen, Da'Ron Payne, and Montez Sweat. The Eagles O-line is going to have issues moving these guys off the ball, putting Wentz and Co. in obvious passing situations. Look for turnovers to be the deciding factor in DC on Sunday. The Washingtons will have an improved Dwayne Haskins, with a year under his belt getting all the 1st team reps, which is sure to have a positive impact on one of the worst units in the league last year. Some short fields to work with and a better run game will allow the team from our nation’s capital to probably only lose by a field goal or some heartbreaking close call like a missed extra point or fumble going in late.