Wednesday Night Baseball - Red Sox at Yankees

Boston Red Sox (6-12) at New York Yankees (7-9)

Nathan Eovaldi (R) vs. J.A. Happ (L)

Market Line: NYY -120

ProMathletics Pick: Lean NYY at -120

 

Whewww...this was NOT the start the Red Sox or Yankees were looking to get out to in 2019 after having won 108 and 100 regular season games respectively last year.  Their combined record that is 8 games under .500 is a cold splash of water into the face of each fan-base with World Series aspirations, but the good news is they still each have over 140 games to position themselves for another post-season run.  We have two valued picks for subscribing customers today, but unfortunately there is not quite enough value for this one to be a suggested play.  Our model has been hot to start the year, as it was for basically the duration of the 2018 season, so make sure you get in early while there is still a long timeline and large sample size for you to benefit from the positive expected plays.

Projecting baseball winners is a game of inches, even more so than football, and this one just doesn't have enough meat on the bone to fall in the positive EV category.  If you are bored and want some action, put an entertainment wager on the Yanks who should get a better outing out of Happ and love hitting in their home park. At a money line of -120, you need an expected win percentage of over 54.3% for the Yankees to be positive expected value...we do have them above that, but it doesn't meet our threshold of enough value to recommend a play.

We are leaning on the home team in this nationally televised rivalry game at a slight premium.  Our model liked it at -110, but after a -115 open and being bid up throughout the day, there isn't enough juice in it to be worth the squeeze.  Both starting pitchers, like the teams, are off to horrible starts.  Eovaldi has a history of highs and lows, but his 8.40 ERA after 3 starts, each lasting 5 innings, doesn't have any indication of turning around.  He's averaging a very poor 6 K/9 vs. his equally poor 6 BB/9.  He has always struggled with his control, but for his fastball velocity still averaging 97.1 mph this year, he is not missing many bats.  On the flip side, Happ hasn't actually thrown as bad as his equally atrocious 8.76 ERA would suggest.  He's averaging a decent 9.5 K/9 and a slightly below average 3.5 BB/9, but what is killing him has been a .395 batting average on balls in play.  There is no way a .400 average on balls in play is sustainable, so we would project him getting out of this bad skid before the BoSox man does.

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