Wednesday Night Baseball - Brewers at Astros
Wednesday Night Baseball
Milwaukee Brewers (38-29) @ Houston Astros (46-22)
Market Price – HOU -140
ProMathletics Pick – Lean Stros -140
MIL – (R) Brandon Woodruff
HOU – (R) Justin Verlander
We are back in action tonight with 3 valued ProMathletics picks that went out to subscribers earlier today. Unfortunately, this prime time ESPN game does not fall far enough in our positive expected value threshold to warrant a true play. If you can find the Astros around -125...which, ya can't at this point, it would be worth taking, but -140 is a little too close to our intrinsic line money line of -150 to back it.
That sort of discipline is what allows us, and our customers, to consistently make money. Season to date our monthly returns are as follows:
- March +1.48 Units (ehh...always takes time to get dialed in)
- April +7.58 Units (ok..ok...I see you finding your true north)
- May +27.84 Units (fuck yes, that's why we do the work!!)
- June +5.92 Units (only a third of the way through the month...stayin' steady)
What is the key to all of this? Steady, long-term, positive expected value equaling profits.
Tonight's game is a pitcher's duel on paper, with the starting pitchers having a combined 17-3 record. Verlander, in year 14, is looking as nasty as ever with a 2.31 ERA, 0.74 WHIP, and 10.5 K/9. We like him at home, but the pesky Brewers offense and the superb season-to-date performance of Woodruff are too solid for our model to back any play in this one. Gun to our head, we take Astros, season long maximization of profits, save the money you could bet on this one and purchase a week of our valued plays to make some real money!