Turkey Day Double
It is unbelievable that we are already at week 12 and making Thanksgiving wagers. After the Ravens/Steelers got moved to Sunday, we missed out on the traditional Turkey Day Triple, but the football gods have smiled on us, with a good opportunity to go after recent overreactions. If you are reading this, we suspect you were going to be betting on both these games no matter what, but there is some added comfort to know that the numbers are encouraging us to take action in between the food and booze.
Detroit Lions +3 at Home vs. Houston Texans
There is a reason we love week 2. It is the ultimate overreaction week. Everyone sees the one game and makes bets accordingly. This one has that kind of feel to it. The Lions got embarrassed last week, getting shutout by the Panthers and Watson and the Texans took down the Patriots (who actually aren’t very good it turns out). Consider this, the last 18 times a team was shutout they went 12-5-1 ATS the following week. Let’s not kid ourselves, the Lions are a flawed team, but they certainly are not as bad as they showed us last week. They do still have trouble running the ball, but not as much as Houston, who owns the worst running game in the NFL. The Texans have to rely on the pass and everyone knows it. A one-dimensional offense is the perfect recipe for a struggling defense to turn things around. The truth is these are very similar teams with a slight edge going to the Lions. With that being said, we’ll take the 3 points for the home team in an early game on a short week.
Dallas Cowboys -3 at Home vs. The Washington Football Team
After 3 straight embarrassing losses, it seems like the Cowboys may have turned the corner. They came thisclose to handing the Steelers their first loss of the season two weeks ago and won a hard-fought battle in Minny last week. Zeke Elliot went over 100 yards for the first time all year and the return of Andy Dalton may have at least somewhat revived a once lethal air attack, going for 3 TDs to 1 INT last week. However, the Washingtons have a very good pass defense so look for the Boys to control the game by leaning heavily on Zeke and take a couple deep shots with play action. Dallas started the season as one of the league’s worst defenses, but has improved to just below average. Even with the comeback story of the year in Alex Smith at QB, Washington has the 2nd worst offense in the NFL, and the only reason they are not last is that the New York Jets exist. This one will be played with a lot of emotion with the sudden death of Dallas strength and conditioning coordinator Markus Paul on Wednesday. We believe the Cowboys will be able to step up on the outside and win/cover for coach.