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Tuesday Night Baseball
Atlanta Braves at San Francisco Giants (9:45pm EST)
Market Line – ATL -110
ProMathletics Play - Lean on ATL -110
ATL - Teheran (R)
SF- Anderson (R)
There weren't any nationally televised games last night due to the scheduling conflict with the NBA Playoff game on ESPN. The old saying "good things come to those who wait" is true tonight, as we get a double-header on ESPN to make up for the lack of baseball on Monday. We have 3 valued plays today that went out to subscribers earlier, but unfortunately the two games on ESPN tonight do not fall into that category. The first game featuring the Phillies at Cubs - our projected money line is right on top of where the market is, so there isn't any value to speak of. The second game we do have a little bit of value on the Braves, so we will roll with that as our free lean of the day.
The 26-22 Braves have a winning record on the road this year and come into the game as only a slight favorite at -110. The Giants are four games under .500 at home and are trotting out a rookie starting pitcher making his second career appearance. Shaun Anderson didn't fare too badly in his first start, giving up 2 earned runs over 5 innings, and getting a no-decision in a game the Giants ultimately won 4-3. That being said, our models still discount pitchers who have that few of observed results and the fact that he is 24 and just now getting up to the show for the first time doesn't suggest he is going to be a young stud who outperforms early expectations.
The slight value on the Braves from a modeling perspective looks a little more attractive when considering they have won 8 out of their last 10 and seem to be hitting their stride. Freddie Freeman is hot, with 4 home runs and 9 total hits over the last 5 games. And Austin Riley has lived up to the hype, hitting .409 with 3 home runs over his first 6 games as a major leaguer. We don't have the data to say it's a 58% to 60% winner like all true valued plays, but if you are too cheap to pay the $8 a week for WINNERS galore, this wouldn't be a bad hunch to take.