Week 14 Thursday Night Football - Jaguars at Titans Prediction

 

[6.6 Units] Jacksonville Jaguars (+4.5) at Tennessee 

6.6 Units – JAX +3 or more

3.3 Units – JAX +2.5

No Action – JAX +2 or less

 

We are in the GreenZone tonight for the AFC South matchup of two 2017 playoff teams that don’t have much of a chance at making a run this year. The value in this game is stemming from the same factors that led us to taking the Jaguars last week against the Colts, where they covered as home dogs. We have the Jags in the top-5 for both defense and special teams. Barring really bad offense, that will usually get you quite a few wins in the NFL. The problem for the Jags this year has been implosion-like offensive performances where it made it impossible for the defense to have a chance at winning the game for them. 

Well, as we said last week, the demotion of Blake Bortles was a reaction to those issues and even if the output of the offense didn’t go up substantially, it could be a big improvement for the team as a whole if the downside wasn’t as erratic. Sure enough, the Jags bludgeoned their way to a 6-0 win against a Colts team that had been scoring a bunch of points. 

The Titans, on the other hand, are a team without a true identity. Their offensive output is almost as bad as Jacksonville, but defensively they are below league average. The way they’ve been able to win games this year is by capitalizing on mistakes, trick plays a plenty, and keeping the clock running as much as possible to limit possessions. That may sneak them out a win tonight, but it will not be enough to cover 4.5 to 5-points. We have this game as only a pick ‘em to a 1-point spread in favor of the Titans. Those 3.5 to 4-points of value make this one more than Green enough to back Kessler on his first road start for the Jags. One nice caveat we have one our side is a well-rested and angry Lenny Fournette coming back after his 1-game suspension. He should provide enough juice for the Jags to have a great shot of winning this one outright and definitely getting us a cover. 
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