Thursday Night Football GreenZone Kickoff

zone 9.6

[6.7 Units] Philadelphia Eagles (pk) home with Atlanta

6.7 Units – Eagles -2.5 or less

3.5 Units – Eagles -3

No Action – Eagles -3.5 or more

 

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We are officially BACK!  We will be out with our full week 1 picks on Saturday, as always, but we have our first GreenZone play of the year tonight.  As a friendly reminder, all of our reported spreads are based on the Westgate’s SuperContest line just because it is the gold standard for books everywhere and the easiest to historically document.  That being said, part of the value we provide is the bet sizing based on the number YOU can actually bet at your now legal place of doing business.  The line of pick ‘em for the SuperContest felt like a gift to us, but there is enough value in the current line that you shouldn’t have a problem finding the Eagles at -2.5 or less, with most books being at -1.5 at time of writing.  On to the game…!

The Philadelphia Eagles looked like garbage during the preseason.  This is the only explanation for why this spread is as ridiculously low as it is.  The Eagles won the Super Bowl last year and the team taking the field tonight is better than the one that trotted on the field for every playoff game.  They have the best offensive line in the league (sorry Cowboys fans) and were playing without their Pro-Bowl LT down the stretch last year.  Peters and Kelce had limited action in the preseason and Big V, who didn’t play too bad last year, got demolished at LT this camp when filling in for Peters.  We don’t see that being an issue tonight.  Another caveat that the public bettors seem to be factoring in is Carson Wentz isn’t ready to go.  Uhh…do people forget that Nick Foles just won the Super Bowl MVP last year?!  We have zero fear of backing Foles who is playing behind absolute maulers and should be sitting comfy all night.  Atlanta struggles covering backs out of the backfield and the short, quick, pass game…both things that the Eagles utilized to pick everyone apart last year.

On the flip side, this Eagles defensive front, which was already nasty last year, somehow got better in the offseason.  The Falcons have a good offensive line, but we are anticipating Cox and Ngata jamming up the running game and forcing the Falcons into a more one-dimensional, pass heavy, approach.  That is EXACTLY what Jim Schwartz wants to happen, so their slew of edge rushers can start pinning their ears back and getting after it out of those wide-9 DE launch points.  Plan and simple, we think the Eagles are still a better team on a neutral field.  The fact that they are below a 3-point favorite at home, in front of a psychotic (in a good way…sorta) fanbase, in primetime, really feels like a cherry on top of the sundae that is the return to NFL action!   


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