Thursday Night RedZone Live Action - Colts vs. Pats
[0 Units] Indianapolis Colts (+10.5) at New England
Key Live Line Numbers – New England -7 or less and Colts +17 or more
There are times when the system value has to be completely ignored...and tonight is one of those times. Warren Buffet has described his investing style as similar to Ted Williams's batting approach - you don't have to hit every pitch, you just need to hit .400 on the ones right in your wheelhouse. We employ this same mentality when there is too much noise or uncertainty in the data vs. the team that is actually taking the field, the best bet is no bet.
The Colts are getting a TON of points in this game. Our models are going to back a basically league average team getting 10+ points almost all of the time. However, when that team has a plethora of injuries to starters, on a short week, with barely enough active players to field a 53-man roster, there's a problem. Looking at the Colts injury reports on Tuesday and Wednesday, we knew it was going to be very difficult to get confident this game wasn't completely filled with caveats.
Tilting things in further favor of avoiding this one, the Patriots finally put together a VERY complete game last week, are at home for back to back games, are getting more healthy, and are the best team in October over the course of the last 18 years. 10+ point spreads are valuable in the NFL because teams don't often play for style points...they usually just try to get the job done and then get on down the road. There may be some slightly added motivation for the Pats tonight, with this being the first time these two teams have squared off since the "Deflategate" game. If we were completely gun-slinging or were forced to take this one in pick 'em, we'd lean Patriots at -10 and probably back the Colts on anything over that.
Our actual internal approach is going to be... see if we can get a live line in the Colts +17 territory if the Patriots get out fast. Conversely, we will take some Patriots action if the Colts score early and the live line drops in the New England -7 or under type range. In an ideal situation, the Colts score a quick tuddie (take Pats -6 live) then, the Pats get a nice halftime 14pt lead (take Colts +17) and we are sitting on a beauty 11pt middle. This approach isn't as sexy as pre-game outright winners...and sometimes you never get the chance to get the bet off, but it's definitely a much more consistent way to make PROfits, and that's what we're all about, baby.