Thursday Night NFC South GreenZone Game
Has it been the departure of Atlanta’s OC, regression of offensive stats from 2016, or the dreaded Super Bowl curse that has led to Atlanta’s 7-5 record? We think it has to do with a little bit of the 1st two. Atlanta enters this game with their backs against the wall. Sitting at 7-5, they are currently the 7th seed in a six-team NFC playoff hunt. We have been against the Falcons the last two weeks as the system continues to look at the underlying numbers. We mentioned last week that Atlanta has a top 10 offense but have played a very easy schedule. On the defensive side they have not been good and rank towards the bottom of the league. New Orleans comes into this game as the better team. There are some injury concerns that we will keep an eye on but from early sources the Saints/NFL’s best running back, Mark Ingram, will play. Also, it looks like Marshon Lattimore, arguably their best CB, will play after missing two weeks with an ankle injury.
One of the key matchups we believe the Saints can take advantage of is Atlanta vs. NO’s running backs. The Falcons have struggled against receiving RBs, while the Saints Alvin Kamara, who most likely will win ROY, is ranked #1 for receiving RBs. When the Falcons have the ball, we see the loss of starting G Andy Levitre as having a greater than expected impact on the run game. This is the 1st game Levitre will miss since he entered the league in 2009 and he played a significant role in the powerful Atlanta run attack that carried them to the super bowl last year. Devonta Freeman may quickly realize the value of a reliable G up the middle. We this as New Orleans having the upper hand and getting a point in a Dome. This should play out to be a very good game and will bet the value at +2.5.
Suggested Wager Sizes:
5.9 Units for +2.5 or +2
3 Units for +1.5 to +0.5
No action at Pick 'Em or worse