Thursday Night Football - Ravens vs. Jets - Back-to-Back TNF Green Alerts!
[6.6 Units] Baltimore Ravens (-15) at Home vs. Jets
6.6 Units – BAL -16 or less
3.3 Units – BAL -16.5
No Action – BAL -17 or more
We are back in the GreenZone for the second consecutive Thursday Night Football matchup, as we have the Ravens as BIG favorites over the visiting Jets. It is rare that our models like a two+ touchdown favorite, but when it is the best team in the league, it can happen. Baltimore is the only team we have in the top-5 in offense, defense, and special teams. They are as complete as it gets and emerging as one of the best teams, by our models rankings, within the last 5 years. The offense has been front and center for the entire year and we aren't detecting any hint of a slow down. Defensively, their in-season development is eerily similar to the progression they made throughout 2018 and are now playing just about as good as anyone on that side of the ball.
The New York Jets are the worst offensive football team in the league. They had some rotation at quarterback with the Darnold mono early in the year, but even after they have had some relative stability at that position, they are still #32 in our rankings. The defense has won them some games and performed at about a league-average rate. There is obviously a lot of team turmoil with Le'veon Bell bowling until 1am while being a flu scratch last week. Drama aside, they have much bigger problems with the roster from top to bottom with injuries. The likely inactives for tonight's game: S Jamal Adams, CB Brian Poole, CB Arthur Maulet, DT Quinnen Williams, RB Bilal Powell, TE Ryan Griffen, OT Chuma Edoga... They are so banged up that they only have 45 "healthy" players on the active roster and WR Demaryius Thomas is also battling a knee injury.
In short, the Ravens are the best team in the league and this version of the Jets team that is going to be taking the field tonight, on a short week, on the road, with team chemistry/coaching noise, is likely the worst in the league. This line has ran away from the 14-points it was at earlier in the week, but we still like it at anything less than 17.