Who is Going to Win Thursday Night Football - Dolphins at Jaguars
Las Vegas Super Contest Spread: Jaguars -3
[6.6 Units] Jacksonville Jaguars (-3) at home with Miami Dolphins
6.6 Units – JAX -3 or less
No Action – JAX -3.5 or more
We are in for a treat tonight with two of the biggest characters in the league slanging the ball around on a short week. Our models like the Jags (2-0) to win this game by closer to 6-points, so we are in the GreenZone for another TNF game after our Bengals cover last week.
The public was selling the Jags heading into the season because of the headline trades that sent some former key members of the defense away for draft picks. We, astutely, saw the overreaction and are currently 2-0 against the spread with these guys in 2020. We were chirping about a potential money-line win for them at Tennessee last week and it wasn't as crazy as the spread suggested.
A home team line of -3, especially on a short week, would suggest that these two teams are evenly matched. We disagree. The Dolphins (0-2) are currently sitting at #32 in our internal power rankings. Their defense has not been able to get off the field and there hasn't been nearly enough Fitzmagic to make up for it. It's still very early in this awkward season, but it looks like this Phins team is destined for a very slow start before they start working in Tua in the second half of the season. You may like beards better than mustaches, but Minshew is the best QB on the field tonight and that's going to prove the difference maker for us to get Week 3 started with a winner.