Thursday Night Football: Patriots @ Rams (-5)
The regular season is winding down and the Patriots are heating up. What's new? Well, one of the things that is new is Cam Newton is not great at throwing the football. he is in the bottom 3rd of just about every advanced statistical category, including the 26th best QBR. While the Patriots are just 6-6, this season is still a pretty big success for Bill B and the braintrust. They have basically no weapons on offense and a ton of dudes on the defense decided to opt out before the season even started. Despite all that, they could be heating up, especially after the drubbing they handed the Chargers last weekend. With a short week and a matchup in the same building this week, the Pats stayed out west this week. combine that with no fans and the home field advantage becomes much more limited. That is why, despite the drastic difference in performance this season from these two teams, we have to keep this one for the Rams in the YellowZone.
The Rams are somehow flying under the radar with offensive and defensive units both ranking in the top five in the league. They have the best player in football in Aaron Donald as well as elite shutdown corner Jalen Ramsey. Cooper Cupp and Robert Woods are among the best 1-2 WR combos in football and Cam Akers is finally starting to show signs of the promise people were looking for earlier in the year. The Achilles heal for this Rams team has been turnovers. They have given up the ball 20 times already this season, which ranks them as 26th in the NFL. What's more, is those turnovers often directly turn into points, sometimes on the same play. Including a pick 6 vs SF and a Goff fumble/TD vs Miami. All these ingredients for randomness and the existence of Bill Belichick are enough to resist a full Rams wager, but if you need that action or are in a pick em league, take LA. The Rams will cover the 5 if they avoid big turnovers or negative special teams plays, but that is a big IF with this squad.