Thursday Night Football - Giants at Eagles

 

phi nyg

 

We Connor McGregor strut into week 7 after a dominant 5-1 (+23.4 units) performance last week.  This season has been unlike any other we have collectively experienced, but we are starting to hit our stride and are building confidence we have the 2020 home field factors dialed in.  In years’ past we have given our subscribers insight as to the type of “noise” i.e. factors impacting games that are not reflected in our data… this year has introduced a whole slew of new variables, but we are grinding trying to sort through and adjust as quickly as possible.  Injuries, days off, travel, offense/defense style matchups… these were all the historical aspects we have a management overlay for one a weekly basis.  Now, we are looking at teams closing facilities, completely empty “home fields”, and a major uptick in injuries due to the abbreviated pre-season.

Those aren’t excuses for our year-to-date performance, this is just the reality of what we are all dealing with.  A major part of our rationale for moving away from a paid-subscriber model was the increased uncertainty that our long-run edge would hold up in this covid-tainted season.  Thus far, that apprehension was well-founded.  We can’t make any promises we are going to hit 83% again this week, but as always, we are turning over every stone we can to try to put the best plays of the week in your hands.

Now, on to this doozy of a Thursday Night Football game with the New York Football Giants visiting the Philadelphia Eagles.  These two dumpster fires come into the matchup with a combined 2-9-1 record, but amazingly, are still right in the thick of the playoff hunt.  The much-publicized level of atrocity in the NFC East seems to get more hilarious by the week.  It was funny for a couple weeks, but we all felt like the Cowboys or Eagles would turn it on at some point and separate from the pack.  Heading into Week 7, there isn’t any light at the end of the tunnel.

Our models have the Eagles as about 5.5-point favorites which is only about a point of value vs. the market line of around -4.5.  We do not have positive-expected value with only 1-point of edge, so there isn’t any further room to demote this one out of the RedZone, but there are also a lot of injuries for this Philly squad that further decrease our confidence.  If you are in a pick-em league or have to take action pre-game, we have no other choice but to listen to the data and back the Eagles.  That being said, we are not recommending a play and will be on the sidelines looking for a possible live or halftime bet situation.  The Birds have been verrrry slow starters this year, while the Giants have looked solid early in several games.  If we can get Philly at a pick ‘em or + a couple points at some point before the 3rd quarter begins, we will hop in and expect the outright Philly win by a fieldgoal+.


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