Thursday Night Football Colts @ Titans
This one will go a long way in deciding the winner of the AFC South. The Titans currently have a one game lead on the division and a win tonight will ensure at least a tie in the season series. The data is becoming a bit clearer in this strange season as we are now through the halfway point, giving us a more solid view of what to expect from these two squads. For those long time readers, it should come as no surprise that we like the Titans tonight. So much so that we have placed it in the GreenZone.
While the Colts are 5-3, they have only beaten one team with a winning record and that would be the Chicago Bears. So take that record with a grain of salt. They currently sport one of the best defenses in the league, but will face a major test tonight facing a top 5, well-balanced offense. We all know that you cannot beat the Titans without slowing down Derrick Henry. As such, the Colts are sure to load up the box providing plenty of opportunities for Tannethrill to push the ball down the field to the dynamic duo of Cory Davis and AJ Brown. This is how Tennessee wins games, run and go play action for big chunks. Tonight will be no different. There has been a lot of talk about the Titans kicking woes and red zone efficiency, but the reality is they are scoring TDs on 80% of their drives inside the 20, which is only 2nd behind Seattle.
However, the achilles heal for the Titans all year has been on the other side of the ball. They have a bottom 3rd defense that has given up big plays at times. But the good news is it is strong armed QBs that have hurt them the most. Quick update: Phillip Rivers does not fall into that category. Rivers has been decidedly average this year, with a 10/7 TD/INT ratio. His trademark over the last few seasons has been crippling interceptions that put his defense in tough spots. While Tennessee is still waiting on getting Adore Jackson back on the field, we fully expect them to take advantage of Rivers difficult decision making tonight.
This game is currently a pickem at most books and we have it as a 4-5 point game in favor of the Titans. That is more than enough value to recommend a full bet tonight. They will stay dedicated to the run and turn at least one Colts turnover into points to secure the win by a FG or more.