Thursday Night Football - Chargers at Raiders
6.6 Units - Raiders (+1.5) at home vs. Chargers
3.3 Units - Raiders +1 to pick 'em
No Action - Raiders -1 or more
We are back in the GreenZone tonight with an AFC West battle between the Raiders and Chargers. Both teams are coming off of wins creating some positive momentum heading into the short week. These are two incomplete teams who have historically, and this season, shown quite a bit of week-to-week volatility. It’s anecdotal, but Phillip Rivers is one of those quarterbacks where it feels like whether you bet FOR or AGAINST, he still finds a way to fuck you.
Battle scars aside, we trust our process and work the data each week. We have a center cut greenzone with a tolerable level of noise to keep the Raiders in the GreenZone at the SuperContest line of +1.5. The only rationale that makes it even slightly questionable is Trent brown’s status for tonight is still unknown. He is a solid RT, but David Sharpe and Andre James have filled in admirable at C and RT in replacement of Brown and regular starting C, Rodney Hudson. We’d love to have the 1s, back, but that’s not enough to boot this one otherwise.
The Raiders rely on their offense to control the clock and field position. It’s a necessary strategy because their defense does struggle, ranking in our bottom-5 so far in 2019. On the flip side, the Chargers have had a similar discrepancy with a top-10ish offense and a bottom-10ish D. It is also important to note, the Raiders have played the hardest schedule in the NFL through the first 9 weeks, while the chargers are sitting at #27.
We will roll with the models tonight and let’s hope the back to back home games for the Raiders is a nice little cherry on top to get them over the hump for an outright win.