Thursday Night Football - Cardinals @ Seahawks
Tonight kicks off a great string of primetime NFL games this week. After tonight’s battle for the NFC West, we get KC/Vegas on Sunday night and close out the week with Bucs/Rams on Monday. This one pits perhaps the two most talked about QBs this season, Russ Wilson and Kyler Murray. Between all the talk about Wilson’s lack of MVP votes and the Hail Murray, these guys may be the most respected/disrespected guys in the league. However, it is important to note that football is a game that is commonly played with 11 guys on each side at a time. Ultimately, this is why we like the Seahawks to re-assert their dominance and split the season series. There is value on the Hawks, but injuries are keeping this one in the YellowZone. If you NEED that action, go with Seattle, but nothing too big.
There has been endless hand wringing over the Seattle defense so far this season. The reality is they are bad, but not as historically bad given the stats that the talking heads are constantly parroting. Sure, they have a bottom 1/3 defense, and while that will be an issue deep into the playoffs, it is certainly not crippling enough to keep them out of the playoffs. However, the 26th ranked passing defense will be without BOTH their starting corners that brought them to this point. Jamal Adams was missing from Seattle’s OT loss to Arizona a few weeks back and that should help, but keep in mind, the defense doesn’t have to be lights out. Realistically, they need to keep the Cards under 35 probably to get the win. Kyler has to be salivating, but if they don’t get the last second win last week, this game is probably more like a 4.5 or 5 point spread. It feels weird writing this, but the return of Carlos Hyde should help everyone taking pressure off Wilson and shortening the game a bit for the defense.
When these primetime games end up in the YellowZone and we still want the action (which is happening much more often now that no one has anywhere to go) the live bet strategy is a great way to increase your expected value on any wager. Maybe put a little dusting on the Hawks before the game and hope the Cards come out and score early, then you supplement your original bet on the Hawks with some live action at pk or better. Worst case Seattle comes out strong and you still have your original action to get you through the night.