Thursday Night Football - Broncos at Jets
[6.6 Units] New York Jets (pick 'em) at home with Denver Broncos
6.6 Units – NYJ -2.5 or less
3.3 Units - NYJ -3
No Action – NYJ -3.5 or more
J-E-T-S, Jets, Jets, Jets! Say it with us.
What a time for New York City football. The Giants and Jets are off to amazing starts and the Big Apple is once again the center of the sporting universe. Wait, what, they are both big ol' bags of burning shit right now? No matter, in the system we trust and we are riding with the Sam Darnold driven rocket ships.
The Las Vegas Super Contest line for this game was a pick 'em which is what we base all of our plays on for ease of verification vs. line sniping to inflate performance. That being said, the current consensus line is at -1.5 in favor of the home team and we are still firmly in the go zone at that spread.
What? How? Those are two questions a lot of you folks are probably asking yourselves if you haven't been living under a rock and witnessed some of the bad football the Jets have played in 2020. The short answer: the Broncos have actually played worse. We have the Broncos as dead last in our internal power rankings and it's by a significant margin compared to our 2nd to last place Jets. This observed data is before the first start for Brett Rypien. Rypien has only played in extremely limited NFL action, with 53 career passing yards and a 51.6 passer rating. That data isn't enough for us to project his performance, but we do have plenty of data for undrafted QBs making their first start, and it isn't great. Pair that with the fact that this is a team in disarray playing on the road on a short week...
There have been a lot more viewers seeing how bad the Jets have played than the limited viewership on the Broncos, so the public pessimism is understandably more focused on the Jets. But, let's also not lose track of the fact that the Jets have played the 3-0 Bills, the defending NFC Champ 49ers, and the 2-1 Colts... not exactly getting smoked by scrubs. Our data is overwhelmingly in favor of the Jets and we are more than happy to take them against a 1st time starter. Let's get it going with another 1-0 start to the week on Thursday Night Football.