Thursday Night Football - Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers
Tonight's action in Charlotte is a prototypical YellowZone play for us. We have a lot of stability to our projected line of Falcons only being 1.5-point underdogs, but that is not enough wiggle room vs. the consensus market line of 2.5-points for us to have a positive expected value play. We are going to steer clear of this one and wait for the Sunday slate to get into action mode in Week 8. Be sure to check the site later on Friday or early Saturday for our full weekend projections. Because of covid-related last minute updates, we have been targeting either after Friday practice or even Saturday morning news cycle to lock in our selections.
A little additional insight on this Thursday Night Football matchup, because it should be a good one. As much shit as the Falcons are getting for being choke artists, they actually are about a league-average team. We have them just slightly better than the Carolina Panthers who are rocking a much more optimistic looking 3-4 record. Breaking down the 1-6 of the Falcs, you have double-onside kick madness to lose 40-39 to the Cowboys, a blow job to lose to the Bears, and then the touchdown last week with 0:00 on the clock to lose by 1. Their offense, despite the injuries, has enough fire power to keep them in pretty much every game. On a neutral field, we have the Falcons as a slight favorite.
However, this game is being played in Carolina and this Panthers team should still win the game outright in a very tight one. Whether it would have been a 1.5..2.5..3.5 spread, we'd be sitting it out. The Panthers offense, led by Teddy Ballgame, is surprisingly performing at nearly a top-10 in the league level. When Christian McCaffrey likely returns in Week 9, they should continue to hum. They are coming off back to back loses against tough teams in the Bears and Saints, but should take care of business with the outright win in this even matchup at home tonight.