Super Bowl LII Pick
A journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step…conversely, the thousand mile cash stacking journey that started in September for the NFL season is now coming to a close with a single game. Bittersweet times for us all, no doubt. We put our hearts and soul into everything we do at ProMathletics, but the NFL analysis and plays hold a special spot for us and for a lot of our valued subscribers. We’ve had a hell of a year again…winning 60% of our plays and making over a 100% return on our bankroll with our aggressive fractional Kelly bet-sizing methodology. We always coach discipline and not letting any one week or play blind us from the long-term, positive expected value, returns. That being said, we are ultimately dudes at heart and understand the Super Bowl is a treat for us all and we want to slang around some of that hard earned cash for shits and giggles. We put out our suggested prop bets that we took internally here for some of that “funny money”, but we’ll also approach this write up with some of that mindset taken into consideration.
Our playoff heater continued with the Championship GreenZone Eagles +3 play (+5.9 Units) being an absolute laugher, but we did give a little back on the Pats Greenish/Yellow 3 Unit play. Stacking on that additional 2.9 units two weeks ago got us to 7-1(ish) on the playoff picks and a cumulative season total of +109.55 units! There is going to be $4.7 Billion (with a B) bet on the Super Bowl by Americans, so we know we only have a small fraction of the market as subscribers. Don’t be afraid to give us a shout out to your buddies who burned cash all year chasing their own hunches. We are building an empire…college football and basketball are getting more and more dialed in by the day and the hoops model is stacking cheddar at a 58% win rate. College hoops and our upcoming MLB model give us, and you, the opportunity to capitalize on more consistent flow and a much higher notional number of games. With that background aside, on to the BIG PLAY!
[5.9 Units] Philadelphia Eagles (+4.5) against the New England Patriots
5.9 Units – Eagles +4.5 or more
3.0 Units – Eagles +4
No action – Eagles +3.5 or less
Final Score Prediction: New England 24 Philadelphia 20
Money Line – New England anything less than -150
The system has this game at 2.5-3 point differential in favor of the Patriots. When the initial line posted at 5.5, we loved it a lot more than what we do right now at 4.5, but given it’s the Super Bowl, it’s a GreenZone GO for us. As we outlined in our prop betting piece, the Patriots have been slow starters this year and historically in Super Bowls. Last year was actually the only time the Patriots have won the Super Bowl by more than 4 points. That game was obviously not truly a 6-point game in terms of team value, it was just a fluky outcome that came as a result of the game going to overtime. The model and our qualitative expertise all point to the same sort of action tomorrow. The Patriots defense has improved tremendously since about week 5 of the regular season and they’ve obviously done enough to get them into the big one. That being said, the talent on the defensive side of the ball for the Eagles is far and away better than what the Pats have to work with. Based on the data accumulated throughout the entirety of the season, the Eagles have the edge on defense. Offensively, the Patriots with Tom Brady pulling the trigger find ways to win games. Regardless of whether you like them or loathe them, it is impossible to argue that this Patriots brain trust and personnel don’t have best in class “get it done” ability. There are a lot of times when it’s not pretty, but they find ways to make adjustments and execute down the stretch. We are anticipating a slow start, the Eagles getting out to a lead, and then the Patriots gradually chipping away at it and pulling out another win.
We are going to be differentiating from our typical course of business because of the stage of this one and the level of conviction we have in the Patriots money line win. We have them at right about a 60% chance of winning the game outright. The money line is currently right around -200. A -200 money line implies a 66.7% expected win rate…pretty easy math here, you win 2 times out of 3 (+100 +100 -200 = $0 ev) which is obviously above our 60% win expectancy. Therefore, it is a negative expected value to bet the current -200 line. “So why the fuck are you telling us this?” is probably what you are asking yourself at this point. WELL, thanks to technology, most books offer in game live betting options and most definitely have half time lines. Let’s revisit what we are expecting for the game. Eagles get a lead…Patriots come back and win. When the Eagles get out to a lead, that live money line (and spread) are going to shift quite dramatically. If the Eagles go up 7-0 in the first quarter the New England ML will probably shoot down to -120ish and the new spread will be around NE -1ish…that’s when we attack. We have been hammering the live bets on our playoff plays and been absolutely raking. The key number we are looking for is New England -150 Money Line. Anything better than that level i.e. New England -120, NE +110, etc. we will be betting some size. If the Eagles can get up two possessions you will be able to grab NE + juice.
The bet sizing isn’t a science here, since we are only recommending this approach for the Super Bowl, but shooting from the hip every now and then is good for the soul. Again, 60% chance the Pats win… if you bet -150 10 times, you’d win 6 times for +$600 and lose 4 times for -$600 which would be a breakeven expected value. Anything less expensive than NE -150 and it is GREEN. Enjoy the game…smash some wings, some coldies, those juicy prop bets, Eagles +4.5, and any gift money lines we get with a quick Eagles start! Until next season, my dudes.