Indianapolis Colts (+3) at Home vs. Denver Broncos
No one is going to mistake this one for the AFC Championship game, BUT it is professional football on a Thursday night, and both teams are going to be donning some pretty sharp color rush getups. Even more importantly, we’ve recognized enough value to put this one firmly in the GreenZone.
This line seems to be determined by a classic case of public misperception. We can agree that Denver has a good defense, but not as good as you think. ESPN will tell you that they are the best total defense, because they only give up 280 yards per game. But that is just a surface stat. When you consider strength of opponent and high leverage plays, we see them as closer to the 10th best squad, and pretty average against the pass. Sure, Von Miller and Co. will be licking their chops as they face potentially the worst pass protecting offensive line in the NFL, but it is not going to take 30 points to win this game. The Colts may have a dismal offense, but it is nowhere near as bad as the worst offense in football, the one led by Trevor Siemian. According to DVOA, the Colts, the 2nd worst offense, are almost as close to being league average as they are to the worst offense, the Broncos. Siemian on the road makes this offense somehow even more putrid. Let’s take a look at Trevdawg’s Home/Road splits this season.
Not exactly awe inspiring. If you could handpick any starting quarterback to go against a decimated secondary on the road, and his name was not allowed to be DeShone Kizer, it would most certainly be Mr. Trevor Siemian. Now Jacoby Brissett hasn’t exactly been killing it, they are some things that the Colts can do to counteract the fierce Denver pass rush. Look for Indy to emphasize off tackle runs and screens to keep the edge rushers on their heels. This should create a bit more time for TY Hilton to create some opportunities in the Broncos’ secondary. Remember, it is only going to take maybe 20 points to win this one, and we think that is a goal these Colts can meet at home on a short week.