Nothin' but a KC Thang

These Thursday Night Football games are starting to feel like the classic Bill Murray movie, "Groundhog Day", where the same thing keeps happening over and over.  This hasn't been a bad thing for us though... This is the 7th Thursday night game of the season and it is now our 5th in the GreenZone!  We are currently 4-0 when in the Green and 5-1 overall on these weekly NFL appetizers.  Quick recap of last week: 5-3 on suggested plays for a total of +10.9 Units.  That takes us up to 29-16-1 or 64.4% WINNERS and a 6-week NFL season total of +71.45 Units.  You honestly can't afford not to be playing our NFL picks, fellas.

 

Tonight we are riding with the straight outta KC Chiefs (-3) on the road against the Oakland

Raiders.  We have them as 5 to 6-point favorites in our proprietary models, so we'll take the value and a team that's shown a track record of winning these games.  We aren't much for trend-betting, and often favor the contrarian or mean reversion plays.  That being said, the Chiefs players and staff, both of which have been consistent over the last several years, has demonstrated the ability to get it done against this Carr-Del Rio led Raiders teams.  Both of these teams have been competitive over the period, but the Chiefs have won 5 in a row against their divisional foe.  

 

The Chiefs are a very complete team and are better in every phase than the Raiders.  The Chiefs defense and special teams have been better than the Raiders for pretty much all of those 5 previous meetings mentioned, but what makes this even juicer is the Chiefs revamped O.  We have them as the best offense in the league by our metrics and we don't expect the Raiders D to do much about it.  The Chiefs did stumble a bit at home last week against the Steelers, but the Steelbois D is playing at a top-5 level right now while the Raiders is one of the 5 worst in the league, so we are comfortable with that matchup.

 

Although the Chiefs defense hasn't been as statistically impressive as the last couple years, there are a couple things in particular we really like.  The Raiders are 31st in time of possession, while the Chiefs are 7th.  Less time for the Raiders on O means Justin Houston (Sack Fiddy) and the boys should stay fresh all night and be able to let it fly with reckless abandon.  The Chiefs are #3 in the league in turnover differential vs. the Raiders at #22.  Turnovers in any single game are very hard to predict, but when there is that wide of a discrepancy between two teams at this point in the season, it indicates a material difference in ability to take care of the rock.  

 

This should be a competitive game, but our record on Thursday Night and Travis Kelce's hips don't lie...Chiefs make it 6 in a row against Oakland and we get that elusive 5-0 TNF GreenZone mark!