NFL Week 9 Winners

NFL betting predictions against the spread for week 9 of the 2020 season with positive expected value given the live odds

 

[6.6 Units] Atlanta Falcons (-3.5) at home against Denver Broncos
6.6 Units – ATL -4 or less 
3.3 Units – ATL -4.5
No Action – ATL -5 or more

This one is not for the emotionally delicate. Actually, this week is a doozy. Riding with the Bills, Chargers, and Falcons. Well, psychological distress obviously is not included into our models.  Despite their record, Atlanta is still basically a league average team. However, the ceiling for their offense is much higher than what we've seen so far. Meanwhile, Denver has the 3rd worst offense, which is saying a lot considering only the Jets and WFT are worse. The Falcons want to turn this one into a track meet and they've got a great relay squad. Consider buying the half point to get it to 3, but feel comfortable that this line should be closer to 6. Clearly, no lead is safe with the Falcons, but we believe Denver suffers a letdown after their last second win last week. 

[6.6 Units] Buffalo Bills (+3) at home against Seattle Seahawks
6.6 Units – BUF +3 or more 
3.3 Units – BUF +2 or +2.5
No Action – BUF +1.5 or less

Our models have the Buffalo Bills as 0.69 point favorites (nice!) at home and there aren't any meaningful caveats to speak of.  This is shaping up to be a run of the mill, down the middle of the fairway, GreenZone affair.  Seattle is a better team on a neutral field, but these two teams are more alike than they are different.  Both have offenses in our top-10, but they aren't historically prolific, and do suffer through bouts of inconsistency.  However, that is more than can be said about the defensive side of things. The offenses have carried each of these teams to their 6 wins on the season, while both defensive-minded head coaches continue to tinker with finding ways to get stops.  We will trust the numbers here and take the free three points at home for a game that should really be more of a pick 'em.

 

[6.6 Units] Kansas City Chiefs (-10.5) at home with Carolina Panthers
6.6 Units – KC -10.5 or less 
3.3 Units – KC -12 to -11
No Action – KC -12.5 or more

Enough people have already labeled this a trap game, which probably takes it out of the t-game column. The Panthers were so underrated to start the season, by just playing competent football, they have flipped the script and we believe they are now overrated. They are still a bottom tier team with one of the worst defenses in the NFL. McCaffrey returning from an ankle should help, but is it really going to have THAT big of an impact? Mike Davis has played pretty well in his absence and we still don’t know how healthy that ankle is. Meanwhile the Chiefs are rolling. Granted, the Panthers are an actual professional football team, but the #1 offense in the league should have little trouble putting up big numbers at home on Sunday. You could even buy that half point to feel better being on the big inflection number.

 

[6.6 Units] Los Angeles Chargers (PK) at home with Las Vegas Raiders
6.6 Units – LAC -1 or less 
3.3 Units – LAC -1.5 to -2.5
No Action – LAC -3 or more

It’s amazing how chargery the Chargers have charged this season. They have blown leads of at least 16 points in four straight games. Just unbelievable. What is believable is the talent of Justin Herbert. He has been a top 10 QB since taking over and has shown no signs of slowing down. As evidenced by the early leads they’ve had, this team CAN play with anyone.  It is just a matter of putting it together for all four quarters. The good news for us is people believe the Raiders are decent right now.  They barely beat an extremely shorthanded mediocre Browns squad last week and are back on the road. Vegas still sports one of the, if not the worst defenses in the NFL. The Chargers are going to put up plenty of points and Carr and company will not be able to keep up. There is no way this should be pk IN LA. The Chargers are going to win this game.  Probably by at least a field goal.

 

[6.6 Units] Chicago Bears (+6) at Tennessee Titans
6.6 Units – CHI +6 or more
3.3 Units – CHI +4.5 to +5.5
No Action – CHI +4 or less

Both of these teams come into the game after fast starts to the season followed by brick wall reality checks. The difference is the Titans had The Diesel with fresh legs coming in to start the season and after 1000 carries in the first five weeks we can see he is a bit human. This has led defenses to bottle up the run and force Tannehill and Co. to beat them, which isn’t where the Titans want to be. Good news is the Bears still have a nasty front-four and solid all-around defense to keep this a close game. They allow less than 3 TD’s a game and force errors when Kahlil pins it back and rips a head or two off. Additionally, Tennessee is one of the worst teams when it comes to opponents RedZone efficiency, compound that with a chronic kicking problem that tends to bite them more than it helps and that means advantage Bears. On that note, they also look to be without their punter for the game, which will make for some interesting decisions and field position. A few hidden yards and the better defense should easily keep us in the game here. Take the 6 and watch this meat grinder special play out.

 

[6.6 Units] Indianapolis Colts (+2.5) at home with Baltimore Ravens
6.6 Units – IND -1 or less 
No Action – IND -1.5 or more

The live market line tells you everything you need to know about this soft number posted in the Las Vegas Super Contest.  It's been bet all the way down to the Colts as about 1-point favorites.  The Ravens have beat up on some bad teams, but have struggled against teams in the top-10 of the league.  This Colts defense is in our top-5 and that includes some games without Leonard out there.  The Ravens offense that appeared dominate for most of the 2019 campaign is now in our bottom-third and is going to have a tough time moving the ball on the road this week.  We still like Indy at the live market line, but wouldn't lay more than a point.

 

[6.6 Units] Houston Texans (+6.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars
6.6 Units – HOU -6.5 or less
3.3 Units – HOU -7
No Action – HOU -7.5 or more

This is about as peak ugly of a matchup as exists in the league, with both the Jags and Texans sitting at 1-6. However, we have some value on the best NFL team in Texas, wait, what? (insert the Cowboys stink). We are backing the Texans who will have the best player on the field in Deshaun Watson.  Watson is putting together a solid season despite the team's terrible start. We are expecting another big Sunday through the air as the Jags rank dead last against the pass. #Duvall will be without there own gun slinger, Gardner Minshew. Rookie QB, Jake Luton, will make his NFL debut under center. Whoe the fuck is Jake Luton, you ask?  Luton, a former Beaver (Oregon State alum) put up decent numbers in the Pac-12 last year, but do not expect much from him on Sunday.  We anticipate a very one-dimensional attack from Jacksonville as they try to take pressure off the ill-prepared new starter.  James Robinson may have marginal success against a rather toothless Texans run-D, but that won't be enough for the former Beaver to snatch a back door cover after Watson airs it out.


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