NFL Week 9 - Pick Recap
We gave a few units back this weekend with the Lions failing to convert on 4th and Goal from the 1 with just a few seconds left. 2-3 wasn't a bad week considering the public got absolutely slaughtered at the books. Keep the process as we are due for a 5-0 with a parlay here any time. Above all, the data is getting ripping hot and we feel good about a nice run down the stretch. Overall the GreenZone is at 50% on the year, but is down due to bet sizing
Below is the updated YTD performance and pick recap sent to our subscribers in its entirety.
Could it be…could this be the week we break out and get the heater started? Last week, it really felt like we were heading to a perfect start after the Thursday Night Football win and looking really good in all four of our one o’clock games. Unfortunately, the Lions gave up a cheap back-door cover after being in command for the entire game to only win by 5 and the Bengals got a back-door score overturned after they had been within striking distance for the entire second half. But, thems the breaks when you are wagering on NFL Football. It’s always going to be tight and you’re going to get some luck here and there and some bad beats here and there. We’ll keep doing what we do, stay disciplined, and wait for some lady luck on our side.
We were hopeful we’d be on a higher number of games this week, but Haskins starting for Washington and Allen getting the start in Denver resulted in some games we had to kick due to insufficient quarterback data. With the reality of the Chiefs game not having a bettable line this week, it’s very important you read that write-up for what our bet suggestions are once a line is posted. Given those Chiefs parameters, we are suggesting a five-game parlay and teaser for 0.5 units each with (JAX, PIT, KC, NYJ, and DET).
[6.6 Units] Jacksonville Jaguars (+1) against the Texans (in London) - Loss
6.6 Units – JAX +1 or more
3.3 Units – Pick ‘em
No Action – JAX -1 or more
The Jacksonville Jaguars return to London in 2019 on a little bit of a hot streak. Their 8 sacks against the Jets last week stand out from a headline stat point of view, but what is maybe more impressive has been their offensive efficiency and consistency stopping the opposition’s run game. Over the last three weeks the Jags have held Alvin Kamara, Joe Mixon, and Le’Veon Bell to 30 yards or less. If they can do the same against the Texans, it could be a long, pressure-filled, day for Deshaun Watson. Houston has made some improvement on the offensive line compared to previous seasons, but they are still in our bottom-third for protecting the QB and that does not play well against Sacksonville pinning their ears back. Earlier, we mentioned the offensive efficiency which we also noted in last week’s winning write-up… long story short, we have the Jaguars offense as slightly better than the Texans. Our models have Jacksonville as a better team on a neutral field and we can even make the case there is a slight home field/familiarity advantage since the Jags play one home game in London every year. The public is all over the Texans, but we are getting the better team who just needs to win the game and that is wheelhouse value.
[6.6 Units] Pittsburgh Steelers (+1) at home with the Colts - WIN
6.6 Units – PIT Pick ‘em or + any points
3.3 Units – PIT -1
No Action – PIT -1.5 or more
It looks like there are going to be key injuries for each team heading into this game, as T.Y. Hilton has officially been ruled OUT and James Conner is listed as doubtful (as of time of writing). Even with those factors taken into account, our models like the numbers, and we like the match up. During his 8-year career with the Colts, T.Y. has missed 5 games…in those games, the Colts are 0-5. Eliminating your best down the field playmaker and also the guy who can consistently get you 9 on 3rd and 7 obviously puts a lot of pressure on the rest of the offense. We have Pittsburgh as a top-10 defense and do not think the Colts will be able to find ways to compensate for the lack of Hilton at Heinz. On the other side of the ball, no Conner is a headline, but we have the Colts rush D in our bottom-third, as well as the Colts D overall. The Steelers have had some volatility on offense, but their offensive line is #1 in adjusted and raw sack rates, only giving up 7 so far on the year. Mason Rudolph has played at about a league-average rate and that is all he will need to do to get a home W for us on Sunday.
[6.6 Units] Kansas City Chiefs (+2.5) at home with Minnesota - WIN
6.6 Units – KC +1 or more (with Moore) | Up to -2 with Mahomes starting
3.3 Units – KC Pick ‘em (with Moore) | -2.5 with Mahomes
No Action – KC -1 or more (with Moore) | -3 with Mahomes
This is back-to-back weeks we are against an NFC North visiting opponent in Arrowhead and feels like the 100th week in a row we are against the Vikings. In years past, our models have loved the Vikes, but apparently this year Joe Public is all over them and we can’t get away from having value. The Redskins took care of business for us (even with Haskins doing nothing for an entire half) against the Vikings last week and we have to stick to our guns on this one. That is, if we ever get a friggin’ line to be available to bet. At time of writing, no decision for Mahomes has been made and no book is willing to take that risk. At the SuperContest line of +2.5 we like it with Matt Moore. As we said last week, Andy Reid is going to get points with these weapons and Moore is more than sufficient. They lost the game against GB because Rodgers made some unbelievable throws down the stretch…it was not because Matt Moore was too big of a drop-off. We have KC as the better team (with Mahomes or not) so there is a TON of value in this line…the tricky part is going to be if it rips like a mofo if it’s announced Pat is playing.
[6.6 Units] New York Jets (-3) at Miami - LOSS
6.6 Units – NYJ -4.5 or less
3.3 Units – NYJ -5
No Action – NYJ -5.5 or more
In the five years since we have been running our proprietary models, the 2019 Miami Dolphins are the worst team through 8-8-weeks based on our data… and it’s not even really that close. The combination of far and away the worst defense in the league paired with almost the worst offense (to this point of the season) in the league, does not make for a winning combination. They stripped down the roster and traded anyone of value outside of CB Xavien Howard who they just decided to shut down for the season after the Steelers game. The Jets offense has been bad, but they were down to a 3rd stringer at QB and have played a very difficult schedule (Patriots twice, Bills, Eagles, Cowboys, Jags). Adjusting for schedule and assuming Darnold and this Jets offense should climb out of the basement a bit and the Dolphins will likely be ranked 32nd and 32nd in the two most important phases of the game. Let’s not kid ourselves, there are bets FOR teams and then there are bets AGAINST teams. Our models don’t really love the Jets, due to the very poor offensive showing so far, but they absolutely HATE the Dolphins. At the beginning of the year, it’s hard for the data to catch up to exactly how bad and quickly their level of play was dropping off, but it’s all getting baked in now and we can’t disagree.
[6.6 Units] Detroit Lions (+2.5) at Oakland Raiders - LOSS
6.6 Units – DET +2 or more
3.3 Units – DET +1.5
No Action – DET +1 or less
This is one is just on the cusp of the GreenZone, with the Lions as about a 1-point favorite from our models’ perspective. Detroit didn’t get a lot of public love coming into the season at 100:1 odds to win the Super Bowl and a sleepy 3-3-1 start hasn’t really changed that sentiment much. Our model has them as an above league-average team which is not where public bettors are valuing the team. Matthew Stafford is quietly turning in a very good season, and don’t just take our word for it, Football Outsiders has him #3 in their DVOA (value per play) among QBs and ProFootball Focus has him #8. Oakland struggles defensively, ranking in our bottom-5, and that is heavily influenced by their pass defense. With the weapons on the outside for Detroit and the level Stafford is playing at, the Lions should be able to consistently throw the ball and rack up some points on the road. If Detroit’s inconsistent pass D can find a couple stops in the 2nd half, they should have a very good shot at getting the outright win and cover for us.