NFL Week 9 Pick Recap

Each week we'll be providing our pick recap to validate our performance and give everyone an in depth view of what our subscribers receive. Let's have a look at the selections below from week 9. 

The GreenZone continued it's hot streak this weekend going 4-1. We missed our parlay and teaser thanks to the Skins not showing up. This equated to an overall return of 16.5 Units for straight bets, and -1 for exotics. Straight Bets are up 17.55 Units on the year, and exotics are up 12.25 Units! Bringing our season cumulative total to +29.8 Units.

The Yellow and RedZone were mixed as they finished 4-4, the system overall had a good weekend going 8-5 straight up. Below is a breakdown of the entire Zone performances, along with Bankroll return based on our recommended unit sizing of each GreenZone game and exotic wagers. For the record we only recommend and count towards our units the GreenZone games. 

 

Our write-up and picks for Week 9 is below:

We stressed patience, discipline, long-term perspective last week and that is starting to be rewarded.  We still aren’t even 50% of the way there yet, with 9 weeks of regular season football still to be played, but we are now up $1,430 on a hypothetical $10k bank roll while the rest of the public has been getting absolutely smacked.  The month of October was the most profitable month of all-time for the Vegas sportsbooks i.e. NOT good for public bettors.  So, even though a 14% return, based on just a 52% GreenZone win rate, isn’t how much we usually like to light it up… it still beats losing money and is still a nice foundation for us to go nutty off of once our GreenZone rebounds back up to our long-run average of 60%.  We have five games we really like this week and know that the last one will surely ruffle some feathers.  The system is what it is, fellas, we work the process and adjust the numbers, but at the end of the day it is our models vs. the public’s hunches and whims and the good guys win a lot more than they lose.  Let’s have another big weekend and bust this season wide open as we get over the halfway hump.

For the exotics this week we have KC, TEN, CAR, WAS, MIA for both a 5-team parlay and 5-team teaser.  We outlined the analysis on our site over the off-season and it has proved to be fruitful for us this year.  That is 0.5 units on each and it’s already paid for itself even if we somehow wouldn’t hit another one for the entire season, but that’s definitely not going to happen because we are going 5-0 this week!! 

 

[6.6 Units] Kanas City Chiefs (-8) at Cleveland - WIN 

6.6 Units – KC -10 or less

3.3 Units – KC -10.5

No Action – KC -11 or more

What a gift from the data gods on this one.  We have the Chiefs as 11 to 12-point winners in this one based purely on the stats, without any manual adjustments.  That gets us 3 to 4-points of GreenZone VALUE.  There are a lot of games we take (one in particular to come later) that make you say, “shit, do we really have to be on this team?”.  That is the whole point of using objective data to make decisions over just betting what the heart wants…it’s hard to consistently win money, and oftentimes you have to go against the grain to get that done.  This is not one of those times.  We get the best offense in the league…by far….going against a team that appears to be in one of their patented downward spirals.  What started with Hard Knocks ratcheting down their SB odds to insane levels has now turned into another season where house cleaning begins before 50% of the games are done.  The offense for the Browns has been struggling, but they at least had a pretty formidable staff in place.  Say what you want about Hugh as a head coach, but he’s had a great deal of success as an OC and Todd Haley has created good offensive production at multiple stops.  Throw that all out the window and let’s start from scratch in Week 9.  If it was a lesser opponent then maybe the fresh start would inspire the Browns, but going up against Patty Mahomes and his circus show of freak athletes is not the recipe for getting things turned around.  Chiefs win by double digits here for another easy cover for us. 

[6.6 Units] Tennessee Titans (+6.5) at Dallas  - WIN

6.6 Units – TEN +5.5 or more

3.3 Units – TEN +5

No Action – TEN +4.5 or less

This Monday Night Football game will undoubtedly have Jason Witten all boned up…getting to talk about the Dallas Cowboys for 100% of the broadcast instead of just 70% of the time like he does when the game doesn’t include his former team.  Both of these teams are coming off byes and should be well rested.  Zack Martin is still limited in practice and questionable for the game so that is something to monitor.  Dallas had 5 others who were not able to practice on Friday, so they are definitely the more banged up of the teams at this point.  The numbers for Tennessee have been improving (despite Ws and Ls) since their offensive line returned to health after the first couple weeks of the season and we like their physical run game keeping this one within 1-score.  Our models have these two teams being very close to each other in terms of overall performance, so this should be closer to a 3 to 3.5 type of line than the 6.5 as published by the Las Vegas SuperContest.  This is a line that has come down at some books, but with the large public backing of the ‘Boys, our guess is it’ll get back to +6.5 territory by the kickoff on Monday.  We expect the Cowboys to squeak out the home win (specially if Cooper can help them step up on the outside), but the Titans sneaky good D and ball control offense should keep us close.

[5.5 Units] Carolina Panthers (-6) with Buccaneers - WIN

5.5 Units – CAR -7 or less

2.75 Units – CAR -8 or -7.5

No Action – CAR -8.5 or more

Our models have this as an 8 to 11-point game in favor of the Panthers…that’s not the system value we want, that’s the system value we need.  Looking at the momentum factors impacting these two squads, there’s an argument that can be made that the Panthers should actually get manually adjusted higher in our system and the Bucs down, getting this thing close to a 14-point game.  The Panthers had key injuries on both sides of the ball (Olson and Davis to name 2 of their best 5 players) and have started to really rise up our ratings over the last couple weeks of being at full strength.  They are at 5-2, but for whatever reason, nobody is really talking about them or giving them much respect.  Tampa, on the other hand, has the WORST defense in the league, per our metrics, and doesn’t have any positive momentum for improvement after losing a difference maker in Kwon Alexander at LB.  Not only is the defense absolutely garbage, but on the offensive side of the ball they have started the Fitzmagic for Winston flip-flop which never turns out well.  The old saying is “if you have two quarterbacks, you don’t have a real quarterback” and that appears to be true in this case.  Fitzy can give you a game or two, but he’s already baked into our numbers.  The Bucs have lost 4 of their last 5 and we have to trust the numbers on this one as the Panthers roll to another big win.

[5.5 Units] Washington Redskins (-1.5) at home with Falcons - LOSS

5.5 Units – WAS -1.5 or less

2.75 Units – WAS -2 or -2.5

No Action – WAS -3 or less

We knew the Falcons weren’t exactly going to be the ’85 Bears on defense prior to the season starting, but injuries have turned this unit into Swiss cheese. We now rank them as the league’s second worst defense behind the laughable Tampa Bay squad. After losing 3 DBs to injury and their best LB in Deon Jones, the goal of this defense has essentially become to just make opposing offenses take as much time as possible before they score. While this has long been an offensive minded team, Matt Ryan and company just have not been as good as they’ve been in the past.  They’ve become extremely one dimensional.  Starting RB Tevin Coleman has yet to pass 51 yards rushing in a game this season. When an opponent has this lopsided of an attack, it usually plays right into the hands of the defense, and Sunday will be no different. With a stout front four led by Jonathan Allen and Da’Ron Payne, the ‘Skins will be able to dedicate a maximum about of attention to stopping Julio Jones and company.  Additionally, Josh Norman gained some help in the secondary this week as Washington added former Packer safety Ha Ha Clinton-Dix at the trade deadline. When Washington has the ball, look for them to continue to lean on Adrian Peterson, who has been revitalized this season, averaging 84 yards per game. Alex Smith and the Washington passing attack has been less than impressive, but Smith protects the ball and limits opportunities for opposing defenses. Look for the ‘Skins to control the ball and put this one away on the ground in the fourth quarter. 

[5.5 Units] Miami Dolphins (-3) at home with Jets - WIN

5.5 Units – MIA -3 or less

2.75 Units – MIA -3.5 or -4

No Action – MIA -4.5 or more

Death, taxes, and the Miami Dolphins. That’s the story of the ProMathletics’ 2018 NFL season. Even though they’ve hurt us a couple times lately, we can’t quit them.  As we say time and time again, it is important to not let emotion get in the way of the clear numbers driving us to WINNERS. Considering you’ve read this far, we’re not going to waste any more space convincing you to trust us. All the jokes about Brock Osweiler aside, he is ranked 16th in Football Outsiders’ DVOA. This basically makes him a league average QB. Ryan Tannehill is 29th, and more importantly, the Dolphins’ QB opponent in this one, Sam Darnold, is ranked 28th.  When comparing both offensive units as a whole, the Phins are clearly the better of the two.  Miami is a league average offense and the Jets are one of the worst. Over the past couple weeks, we’ve seen some severe breakdowns in Miami’s secondary, plummeting them to 26th against the pass.  We feel this is overblown and they will bounce back this week.  Last week, they were torched due to mental errors, which can be corrected.  The ability is there, and while they’ve looked ill as of late, facing Sam Darnold is the perfect medicine.  When the Phins have the ball, look for them to establish the run, creating shorter 2nd and 3rd down to go situations, taking the pressure off Osweiler and creating play action opportunities.  The back end of the Jets’ D is its strength, so scoring drives are going to have to be methodical.  We don’t anticipate a ton of points, but Miami shouldn’t have to do too much to beat this anemic Jets offense and get the cover.

[0.5 Units] 7PT TEASER - KC, TEN, CAR, WAS, MIA - LOSS

[0.5 Units] PARLAY - KC, TEN, CAR, WAS, MIA - LOSS