NFL Week 8 Winners

NFL betting against the spread positive expected value projections for all the Week 8 games

[6.6 Units] Chicago Bears (+4.5) at home against the New Orleans Saints
6.6 Units – CHI +3.5 or more 
3.3 Units – CHI +3 
No Action – CHI +2.5 or less

November football for the 5-2 Chicago Bears is a much more friendly atmosphere than playing down in the dome against the New Orleans Saints.  New Orleans is definitely still the superior team in this game...bringing a top-10 offense, defense, and special teams.  However, the Bears defense is once again playing at a top-5 level during the 2020 campaign.  Let's take a look at the 'ol forecast... Holy shit, the first thing you see is "Gale Force Wind Warning" and then you notice it's a high of mid-30s with a low of mid-20s and gusting winds up to 25mph.  That isn't good for any offense, but especially isn't helpful for a 50-year old QB who is dinking and dunking his way through things as that long ago surgically repaired shoulder continues to wither.  The Bears lost in primetime last week against a hungry Rams team at home... this is a very different matchup and their defense will keep them in coverage territory in this one.

 

[6.6 Units] New York Jets (+19.5) at Kansas City Chiefs
6.6 Units – NYJ +17.5 or more 
3.3 Units – NYJ +17 
No Action – NYJ +16.5 or less

This is one of the largest spreads in NFL history. Only eight games in modern history have featured a closing point spread of 20 points or more. And only twice in the last 10 years has there been a larger point spread than this game — the Broncos were favored by 28 points in a 2013 game against the Jags and the Patriots were favored by 20.5 points against Indy in 2011. Neither team covered. There is no shame in deciding to never bet on what is objectively an awful team, but we still have to let the numbers guide us, otherwise we’re no better than any Joe Public out there. Is there any chance Mahomes or any of the Chiefs big guns finish this one? Picture this, start of the 4th, KC up 30, Chad Henne throws a pick 6. 8 more minutes of nothing but punts and Sam Darnold gets the ball at the 45 with 4 minutes left. Braxton Berrios takes a slant to the house.  Jets lose by 17. It’s not that crazy.  Also, the Jets are very very bad, but they are definitely much better with Darnold at QB. The backdoor will be unlocked, and we think the Jetropolitans will sneak in after smelling that Coverage Pie. 

 

[6.6 Units] Detroit Lions (+2.5) at home against Indianapolis Colts
6.6 Units – DET +2 or more   
No Action – DET +1.5 or less

The Colts are coming off a bye and have one more in the win column, but taking a deeper dive on their strength of schedule performance will help you gain an understanding on why the data likes the Lions here.  Losses against the Jaguars and Browns (dominating loss, we add) are offset by unimpressive wins against the Vikings and Jets...plus a come from behind salvage job at home against the Bengals.  Long story short, our model doesn't love the Colts.  These are two pretty average teams and we see them as close to evenly matched on a neutral field.  We've reduced our homefield advantage factor this year, but it's still enough for us to be getting the value signal on the home-dog Lions in Week 8.

 

[6.6 Units] Miami Dolphins (+3.5) at home against LA Rams
6.6 Units – MIA +3.5 or more 
3.3 Units – MIA +3
No Action – MIA +2.5 or less

The Miami Dolphins are playing .500 ball, coming off a bye, and ostensibly moving Tua into the starting role because he is showing during practice that he gives the team an even better chance to win.  Brian Flores has been a fucking mastermind during his tenure in Miami and we have no reason to start doubting him now.  Based on historical data, we only have the Phins as about 1-point dogs in this one, so we are optimistic they'll get a Tua bump and perform at higher level.  It's a scary one for the public after watching the Rams play one of their more complete games last week, but we'll trust our stuff and take the dogs at home with the hook. 

 

[6.6 Units] Buffalo Bills (-3.5) at home against New England Patriots
6.6 Units – BUF -3.5 or less 
3.3 Units – BUF -4 or -4.5
No Action – BUF -5 or more

The New England Patriots lost Tom Brady who was holding together an offense with smoke, mirrors, and pliability for the last handful of seasons.  He left on his own accord because he knew the house of cards on that side of the ball was crumbling.  Add in about 10 guys opting out because of covid and you are left with an actually bad football team.  If we slapped up the data for all to see next to the 2-4 record and left the name out, there is no chance you'd only have the Bills laying 3.5.  We are slightly nervous because it seems like Belichick always pulls a rabbit out of a hat and turns underperforming teams around, but this is outright BAD football.  It's the lowest we've had the Pats ranked in our 5+ years of doing this.  Take the Bills and trust there is no magic pill for a professional team this lacking in talent.

 

[6.6 Units] Tennessee Titans (-5.5) at Cincinnati Bengals
6.6 Units – TEN -6 or less 
3.3 Units – TEN -6.5
No Action – TEN -7 or more

This game should be over an 8-point spread.  Tennessee is 5-1 and a legitimate top-10 squad.  The Bengals are only ahead of the Jets in based on our proprietary metrics and have all the signs of an imploding team.  They had multiple guys ask to be traded publicly this week and were fighting on the sideline after another loss last Sunday.  The Bengals have some talent and look to have found their guy in Joey Burrow, but they'll make enough mistakes this week for the Titans to make it ugly. 


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