NFL Week 8 - Pick Recap
We had another positive week with our NFL slate. That brings us to 5 of 8 weeks with a positive return on the year. We also hit our third teaser on the year. We still need that one big pop to get us back to fully positive overall. Good news is, historically this is where we step on the gas. Stay disciplined for the rest of season and let's keep it going!
Below is the updated performance YTD as well as the write up that gets sent to our subscribers
It hasn’t been the first seven weeks we wanted, but it has been decent enough to keep us well within striking distance of some beautiful returns. We are coming off back-to-back 3-2 weeks, as well as the TNF Redskins cover to now be 7-4 over our last two weeks and up to 52% on the season. All it takes is one juiceful week and we are right on track for our long-run historical returns. We preach it every year… it’s a marathon and not a sprint. 3-2 weeks don’t feel sexy, but that’s 60% and that’s making money. Don’t get silly when we are up big or plodding along sideways…stay patient and the numbers will take care of themselves.
We have four more full GreenZone games this weekend and then a half-bet on the Bengals in London. We are recommending a 4-team parlay and teaser for 0.5 units each with the four remaining games (NO, JAX, KC, and DET). Our team debated starting the parlay on Thursday night, but decided it’d be foolish to rush the rest of the games and we would be better served to have a couple more days of injury reports before locking everything else in. Greed is not rewarded in the wagering game, so we'll take what we got and keep it to this slew of home squads.
Love the data this week…. weeks 8-11 have historically treated us very well as we are reaching a critical mass threshold on season-to-date data for each team. Let’s go have a big ass Sunday.
[6.6 Units] New Orleans (-10.5) at home with Arizona Cardinals - WIN
6.6 Units – NO -10.5 or less
3.3 Units – NO -11
No Action – NO -11.5 or more
Much to our surprise, this line is holding steady at -10.5 even though it looks like Kamara and possibly Drew Brees will both be playing. They each practiced on a limited basis on Thursday and Friday and Sean Payton said the starters will not be announced until Sunday. That would be a big cherry on top if we got both of those guys back for this game, but even without the dynamic duo, we still like New Orleans -10.5. Our models have this as about a 14-point game with Bridgewater at QB…that jumps to about 17-18 with Brees. As we said in last week’s write-up before the Saints man-handled the bears IN Chicago…the Saints are a very complete team in all three phases of the game. It will be a challenging day in a tough environment for Kyler, but the real issue for the Cardinals is their defense and special teams. We have the Cardinals in our bottom-3 for D & ST, while the Saints are comfortably in the top-10 in all three facets of the game. Whenever there is that wide of a divide across multiple matchups, it typically is at least a 14-point game. Get this bet in today before starters are announced…even if it’s Teddy, you are still good, and then if we get the surprise news on Sunday this thing will likely move.
[6.6 Units] Jacksonville Jaguars (-6) at home with New York Jets - WIN
6.6 Units – JAX -6 or less
3.3 Units – JAX -6.5
No Action – JAX -7 or more
This just in, the New York Jets are not great at football. We were giving them credit for a couple weeks assuming that they would return to a respectable form once Darnold was back, but the 22-year old is not developed enough to make up for glaring issues across the board for this offense. They are our worst offense in the league…that’s right, worse than the Miami Dolphins! The Jaguars were dealing with a little drama early in the year, but that now appears to be a thing of the past and what is more surprising is the balance of the team. The Jaguars offense and special teams are better than the defense through the first seven weeks. Gardner Minshew has brought a level of efficiency to the QB position that hasn’t existed on Duval for a long time. The recipe for the cover here is pretty simple, the Jags methodical offense takes care of the ball and benefit from some great field position from turnovers and stalled drives by the Jets. The Jags haven’t really blown anyone out, but they should be able to cover the 6 with a similar performance as last week at Cincinnati.
[6.6 Units] Kansas City Chiefs (+4) at home with Green Bay - LOSS
6.6 Units – KC +3.5 or more
3.3 Units – KC +3
No Action – KC +2.5 or less
Patrick Mahomes is officially out for Sunday Night’s game and Matt Moore will be getting the start. The public is in love with Green Bay and for good reason…they are a solid team. That being said, this Chiefs offense is at full strength, less Mahomes. They have been dinged up and without key guys for the entire season thus far, but Andy Reid and Moore will have the full compliment of weapons at their disposal on Sunday night. Watkins said he had a great week of practice and is full go and then Tyreek Hill returned last week and picked up right at the level he normally plays. There is obviously a drop off from Mahomes to Moore, but Andy Reid has a long history of tailoring game plans to fit his backup quarterback’s skill sets. Matt Moore had some really good games in Miami where they had a bottom-tier set of skill guys… Mahomes is legit, but don’t forget he has the most electric group of athletes in the league around him. Prime time, in Arrowhead, we expect Travis Kelce, Watkins, Hill, McCoy, Williams, Hardman, etc. to do more than enough for the Chiefs to keep it tight. If you were looking for some money line dog action, this is a really good spot to let it rip as a Chiefs outright win is well within our range of expectations.
[6.6 Units] Detroit Lions (-6.5) at home with New York Giants - LOSS
6.6 Units – DET -6.5 or less
3.3 Units – DET -7
No Action – DET -7.5 or more
The Detroit Lions have lost three games in a row against very good teams. They let the Chiefs slip away from them, had a widely criticized screw job at Green Bay, and then ran into a white-hot Kirk Cousins and couldn’t make enough plays for us on defense last week against the Vikings. Despite the record, we still have this Lions team as above league average, tap-dancing on the fringe of being a top-10 team. We have the G-men as 25th or worse in every aspect of the game and only better than the Jets, Skins, Bengals, and Phins…. not good company. Our models see this as about a 9-point game, which isn’t technically greater than 3-points vs. the line we are advising. However, being under the key number of 7 gets us into the GreenZone and even if it’s at that level, we still like some action at a reduced freight. The Giants have a very bad pass defense, so we are anticipating a big day from Stafford. Against Minnesota last week he threw for 365 and 4 tuddies…it doesn’t take a rocket scientist (although Matt Patricia is one!) to realize that the Vikings defense is substantially better than what they will face tomorrow. As long as the Leo’s D can keep Barkley in check, they should pull away down the stretch to get us a cover.
[3.3 Units] Cincinnati Bengals (+13) against the Rams in London - LOSS
3.3 Units – CIN +10.5 or more
No Action – CIN +10 or less
This is actually the models #1 rated game this week, but we have the very obvious noise in the data of London. Also, the Bengals suck pretty bad and it looks like the Rams may be starting to get hot. It is very hard to predict how a team is going to respond with the travel abroad, but it is easy to think the team that is happy and a double-digit favorite may enjoy their trip more and not maintain the same level of focus. We try to limit our exposure to games played in London, but the system value is too much to ignore. Let’s hope the Rams get a sleepy start and Dalton can avoid throwing enough INTs to gift them a two TD win.