NFL Week 8 Pick Recap
To make sure we accurately reflect our record and picks to both our subscribers and potential subscribers, we'll post our write up from the previous weekend each Tuesday. Attached is the NFL analysis and write up from Week 8 that was sent to all our subscribers. If you'd like a free week trial, send us a message on here, firstname.lastname@example.org, or on twitter @ProMathletics.
It’s time to get back on the horse and keep jamming these positive expected value plays, boys. Let’s not sugar coat anything…last week was as bad as it gets. We get it. That being said, if you are betting with a disciplined approach and sizing your wagers appropriately, you are still up big on the year. There are going to be bad weeks, it’s always a good thing to have those minor setbacks happening with house money instead of your initial bank roll capital.
We like our slate of games this week and are betting them accordingly. It’s going to be a long day for us tomorrow because we are getting the party started early with the Vikes in London. We got some units back on Thursday night with that GreenZone absolutely demolition of the Dolphins and we ended up being on basically all favorites to round out the week. We’ve said it hundreds of times…we don’t favor dogs or the chalk, we just run the models and take what we get unless there is some extenuating circumstance. An example of this is the Washington game tomorrow. The numbers had them in the Green, but we had to kick them out because their o-line is more banged up than Khloe Kardashian’s snatch.
Make sure you don’t go too hard today, because tomorrow we are fucking STACKING that paper!
NOTE: [Units] outlined next to each pick in terms of “to risk” % of bankroll. 5 units = 5% of bankroll or $50 on $1k. Our bet sizing methodology utilizes the Kelly Equation, and more specifically, half-Kelly. The sizes are descending because of “assumed losses” which necessitate dynamically reducing the bankroll.
Minnesota Vikings (-9.5) vs. Cleveland Browns (Ye Olde London Towne)
Surprise, we are going against the Browns again. Extra bonus this week, a little change in the venue as these two play the final early London game. One thing that is not going to change this week, is that the Browns are still really really bad. The Browns are in the midst of implementing the ever successful strategy of switching quarterbacks every 2 quarters. Well, it is DeShone Kizer’s turn again, and to paraphrase Kirk Cousins, ‘we like that!’. We are not sure what current exchange rate is, but 11 interceptions is a buttload of picks in any country. Losing one of the best left tackles of all time is probably not going to help that situation. Meanwhile, the Vikings are operating in upper echelon ultimate balance mode. They rank in the top 10 in offense, defense, and top 20 in special teams. That means on any day, they can beat you in multiple ways. One week it may be a couple picks (probably this week) or it may be Case Keenum carving up your defense. Added bonus for the Vikes, they implemented advanced analytics for all travel, sleep, and practicing plans for this trip. These London games have all been laughers so far. Get ready for another one, with the Browns struggling in all aspects on Sunday morning.
New England Patriots (-7) vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Despite the fact that the Patriots lost defensive captain, Dant’a Hightower, it feels like that time of the year when the Patriots figure out their identity and rip off 8 straight wins en route to a 1st round bye. The last 3 weeks, the Pats defense seems to have figured some things out, giving up just 12.6 points per game during that stretch. On the other side of the ball, Tommy is basically having a pretty standard Tommy season (15TDs/2INTs). The Pats are averaging over 410 yards a game, which is about 20 yards more than the next closest team. But what about the Chargers resurgence you may ask? Well, settle down buddy, they aren’t exactly world beaters. Even though they shutout the Broncos, they were still outgained, basically using a couple flukey turnovers and a goal line stand to make the score seem more lopsided than it was. There is likely to be some weather in Foxboro on Sunday (not ideal for the team from LA) and it is also a 1PM EST start, so they may be a little slow out of the gate. We love Tommy jumping out to a hot start, putting a heavy onus on Rivers to abandon the run and make mistakes in obvious passing situations.
Buffalo Bills (-2.5) vs. Oakland Raiders
The Bills are 4-1-1 ATS and we don’t give a fuck. We do care about the fact they are actually a good team with a tremendous home field advantage. The name of this game is going to be pressure. Anyone with a pulse and at least one functioning eyeball could see that Raiders won that Chiefs game because Derek Carr faced no pressure all game. Not to mention that last drive or the last 10 plays they were gifted with no time left on the clock. People apparently still think this is the Raiders of last year and that the Bills are going to collapse any week now. However, this is 2017 and neither of those things are true. Buffalo is now sporting a top 5 defensive line and they know the Raiders can only move the ball through the air. That means get ready for the big boys up front to pin their ears back and get after it. Potentially, the best news for those on the Bills side this weekend is a very Western New Yorkian weather forecast of mid 40’s temps and rain. For those long time followers of the ProMathletics team, you probably remember that Derek Carr has tiny cat paws for hands and does not perform well in cold environments. So do yourselves a favor and ride with one of the best running backs in the league, the Buffalo weather, big hands, and a solid defensive line.
Atlanta Falcons @ NY Jets (+5)
The Falcons have lost three straight games and the last three teams they have played have 1 thing in common, they are AFC east teams. They have lost to the Dolphins, Bills, and recently to NE last Sunday night. In that game the common theme was to stop the run and bottle up Devonta Freeman. The Jets are looking to make it 4 straight losses for the Falcons as they are coming off a win against the Dolphins last week and held them to 2.1 yards per carry. The Jets have not been great offensively but neither has the falcons defensively, both units rank toward the bottom of the league. One big caveat in this game is going to be the weather. Forecast are calling for T- Storms and 2 inches of rain. We see this favoring the home team. Not sure the Jets will pull out the victory but we will take the points in a long grind it out mud bowl.
Denver Broncos @ KC Chiefs (-7)
“anotha one” our model continues to love KC this year and we find ourselves on them again in this AFC west game on MNF. Coming off an unreal loss to the Raiders last Thursday, the Chiefs look to handle business at home on extra rest. Alex Smith continues his MVP campaign this year as he is 2nd in passing yards and is tied for 1st with 15 passing tds. The Denver defense has completely shut down the run this year but not so much through the air, ranking 17thin efficiency, per Football Outsiders. More importantly, they rank 29th vs TEs, giving up 68.3 yd/gm. Travis Kelce better start practicing some “legal” td celebrations as this could be a huge game for him. The KC defense is not the best, but more importantly the Denver offense is non-existent on the road. More specifically, Trevor Siemian on the road. The table below shows his home/away splits. The numbers truly speak for themselves. To conclude, the model sees this as a 10 pt game, KC extra rest, in Arrowhead, and Siemian’s play on the road leads us to lay the points.
San Francisco 49ers @ Philadelphia Eagles (-12.5)
We know….we are not recommending this game because SF just got destroyed by the Cowboys and the Eagles looked unstoppable Monday night, but because the model has this game over 14 pts. This is solely based on value and not because of a heuristic. We have preached that double digit spreads should be reserved only for the best team vs the worse team situations, and best vs worst can be argued for Phi/SF. SF has struggled on both sides of the ball and looks like the offensive line could be in trouble this week. Both the right tackle and right guard have yet to practice and are doubtful for Sunday. So really, this will come down to the Eagles, who are coming off a short week, having to get motivated for a bad team, and covering 12.5 points. SF sitting 0-7, traveling across country, and bad weather, as long as Philly comes ready to play, SF should roll over.