NFL Week 7 Winners
[6.6 Units] Denver Broncos (+9.5) at home with KC Chiefs
6.6 Units – DEN +7.5 or more
3.3 Units – DEN +7
No Action – DEN +6.5 or less
Sure, KC is one of, if not the best team in the league and it can be difficult betting against them because those losses where you bet against really good teams somehow hurt more, but this one should be closer to 5.5 to 6 points. Even without Von Miller, the Broncos have one of the best defenses in the league. On the flip side, KC is having a tough time stopping the run, which Denver will be focused on to keep the ball away from Mahomes and company. The extra attention required to stop Gordon and Lindsay should give Drew Lock some opportunities to push the ball down the field and keep this one within a TD. We'll likely see snow on Sunday, which should only help to keep it tighter than expected.
[6.6 Units] Arizona Cardinals (+3.5) at home with Seattle Seahawks
6.6 Units – ARI +3.5 or more
3.3 Units – ARI +3
No Action – ARI +2.5 or less
Seattle has a bottom third defense, struggling mightily against the pass and they may, once again be without Jamal Adams. Even if he plays, his injured groin will keep him below 100%. The Seahawks have relied heavily on big plays to score, they lead the league in yards/att at 9, but they have also had trouble protecting Wilson. This offense can be stifled by getting pressure quickly preventing those long passes. This game should be closer to a 1 point spread, but Vegas knows the world is in love with Chef Russell and DK Metcalf so they were able to place the line much higher than it should be.
[6.6 Units] Houston Texans (+3.5) at home with Green Bay Packers
6.6 Units – HOU +3.5 or more
3.3 Units – HOU +3
No Action – HOU +2.5 or less
We currently have the Green Bay defense in our bottom-3 in the league. That's the story here and that was the story last week when they got 40 hung on them in an embarrassing loss. There is definitely the public Joe thought of "don't bet against an angry Aaron Rodgers coming off a loss," and we understand that mentality. However, Aaron Rodgers isn't going to be playing defense against a Houston offense who looks to be hitting their stride averaging 33 points the last two weeks. Yes, Green Bay has an above average offense and is going to put up some points in Houston against this Romeo Crennel defense. That being said, our models have Houston as a pick 'em at home in this game, so we are obligated to take the 3 and the hook and look to cash in on that public perception value.
[6.6 Units] Tennessee Titans (-1) at home with Pittsburgh Steelers
6.6 Units – TEN -1 or less
3.3 Units – TEN -1.5 to -2.5
No Action – TEN -3 or more
It is safe to say that our models LOVE what the Tennessee Titans have to offer this year. We've been on them a lot, but it's worked out, so not sure we can stop the Titans train right now. This matchup of undefeated teams features two teams we think are "for real" during this 2020 campaign. The Steelers have the better defense, but the Titans offense is in elite company at the top of our rankings. Pass rush and disrupting timing are two key areas the Steelers have been able to stifle offenses this year, and in years' past, but the Titans balance is the best antidote for dealing with the heat. Expect a steady dosage of Henry early to set up the play-action game and moving the pocket with the extremely athletic Tannehill on the run. Pittsburgh can absolute tee off on the drop back game, but the Titans aren't the style susceptible to that approach. This is going to be a great game, but the home team Titans are going to pull out the win and cover for the basically pick 'em line.
[6.6 Units] Chicago Bears (+6) at LA Rams
6.6 Units – CHI +6 or more
No Action – CHI +5.5 or less
News flash, the Bears are actually pretty good. They boast the 2nd best defense behind Tampa Bay, while the Rams have had difficulty stopping the run, which is obviously what the Bears will be looking to do on Monday. Even with Aaron Donald, the Rams defensive line has performed quite poorly vs the run and pass. Look for this one to be a low scoring affair in which Big Dick Nick only needs to hit on a couple big plays to keep it within the margin. Our models see this as closer to a 3.5-4 point game, but don't be surprised if Chicago wins straight up if they can get a couple mistakes out of Goff.
[6.6 Units] Jacksonville Jaguars (+8) at LA Chargers
6.6 Units – JAX +7.5 or more
3.3 Units – JAX +7
No Action – JAX +6.5 or less
We said to proceed with caution last week with our scariest pick of the week...the struggling Denver Broncos visiting Foxboro to face an angry Patriots team coming off a loss. Never take a young QB at Foxboro when the Patriots lost the previous week... goes the old advice. We trusted the data and look what happened...easy cover and an outright win on the money line. Look, we get it. Everyone hates the Jaguars and they've lost the last couple against the spread. We get it. The data for them has not been nearly as bad as the public perception and we have them as only about 5-point underdogs this week. When we see 3-points of value without enough noise in it to kick, we take it. That's our methodology and that's how we maintain a long-run positive expected value. The Chargers are 1-4 for a reason and it's because they are a below-average team. 8 points is a lot in this league and the Jags, although bad, have enough offense to hang in this one.