NFL Week 7 - Pick Recap

We had another 3-2 weekend for the GreenZone. The Chargers being the Chargers at the end of the game was tough to stomach, but we were still positive for the second week in a row. The system really starts to heat up here historically and we already to step on the gas down the stretch. Don't delay and sign up today. 

Pick recap and updated performance below

NFL WEEK 7 

After going 3-2 last week, the GreenZone now sits at 50% for the season. As long-time subscribers are well aware, we will finish the season at least at 60%, as we have done every season. We all know what that means, it is time to GET HOT. The best part about this week is the numbers have us on some actually good teams. While we love being scared and trust the model when it suggests taking teams with bad records (read: Miami Dolphins) or bad QBs (Dolphins), it is much easier to trust when we get to ride Tommy and Aaron and get to go against Ryan Tannehill.  We are approaching the halfway point of the season and the data is becoming more significant every week. This is usually the time of the year when our analysis strengthens and we go on a serious run and probably hit the 5-team parlay in the next couple weeks, so don’t forget to play your exotics.

 

The 5-team parlay and teasers for the week are still both 0.5 units and include LAC, DET, GB, NO, NE - Parlay and Teaser lost

 

[6.6 Units] LA Chargers (+2.5) at Tennessee Titans - LOSS
6.6 Units – LA +2.5 or more
3.3 Units – LA +2
No Action – LA +1 or less

Well the Sunday has come that we are finally opposite the Titans. We will be backing the Bolts on the road. In their last two games, the Chargers have outscored opponents 30-6, so if the Chargers can show up to start the game it should be smooth sailing. The addition of tight end, Hunter Henry, was noticed quickly last Sunday. Henry’s 1st game back from injury and with limited snaps went over 100 receiving yards. This offense has been average at best this year, but with Henry back and Melvin Gordon in the backfield they should start to trend to top 10 territory.  The storyline in this game, however, comes from the Titans as Vrabel is making a franchise decision in starting Ryan Tannehill over Marcus Mariota. You can’t blame Vrabel as the Titans offense has been one of the worst in the league this year. The switch didn’t affect our model outcome and the Vegas line didn’t budge either. We think the Chargers will bounce back from Sunday’s loss and put a full game together. Our model thinks they should be favored so we will gladly take the points. 


[6.6 Units] Detroit Lions (+1) at home with the Minnesota Vikings - LOSS
6.6 Units – DET+1 or more 
3.3 Units – Pick ‘em 
No Action – DET-1 or more 
  
It’s been very widely publicized that the Lions got screwed by the refs last week in Green Bay. There were 3 different calls that changed the trajectory of the game against them. Detroit has lost two games by a total of 5 points, with both losses coming from game winning drives at the hands of Aaron Rogers and Patrick Mahomes. Detroit has been a team of consistency with little variance thus far in 2019, you know what you are going to get with the Lions. Minnesota is 0-2 on the road in NFC North games this year, with losses to GB and Chicago. However, the public is crowning them after wins against a depleted Giants offense, and last week’s dismantling of a Philly secondary that started 2 backup corners. Our models give the Lions a slight edge here at home. Compound that with what should be a fully healthy elite secondary for the Lions, the potential of Minny being down two starting linemen, and we love the Lions just having to tie (again) or win at home. Matt Prater should be good for another 5 field goals to give Detroit just enough juice to win this thing outright.

 

[6.6 Units] Green Bay Packers (-5.5) at home with Oakland - WIN
6.6 Units – GB -6 or less
3.3 Units – GB -6.5 
No Action – GB -7 or more 

The Oakland Raiders may be the surprise team of the season. When you factored in last season, Hard Knocks, and the Antonio Brown situation, all signs pointed to 5 or 6 wins. Well it turns out they are not completely terrible. They are 3-2 and have shown some signs of life on both sides of the ball. However, taking down (or keeping it close) vs. this 5-1 Packers team in Lambeau seems to be one step too far. Even with all the injuries the Packers have dealt with in this early season, they still rank at or near the top 5 in both offense and defense. We expect the Raiders to be able to run the ball, as the Packers are currently sporting the 26th best rush defense. However, while the Packers can bring more guys into the box to force Derek Carr’s hand, there is not much the Raiders’ porous pass defense will be able to do to stop Aaron Rodgers from dicing them up. Our models have this as closer to a TD game with Oakland regressing to the bottom tier football team we all suspected they would be at the start of the season.

  
[6.6 Units] New Orleans Saints (+3.5) at Chicago Bears - WIN
6.6 Units – NO +3.5 or more 
3.3 Units – NO +3 
No Action – NO +2.5 or less 
  
When the schedule came out last spring, this game was tabbed as a potential NFC Championship game preview. Well, while it looks like Trubisky is going to start, the Bears will be without Aikem Hicks and Kyle Long and the Saints are now missing Brees, Kamara, and TE Jared Cook. While the Saints are definitely getting the short end of this injury stick, they still present the more complete team. Teddy Bridgewater has been more than sufficient, leading this offense since Brees went down with a thumb injury in week 2. New Orleans still has a top 10 offense and that is mostly due to their efficient passing game. This is also why we are comfortable taking them despite the absence of Alvin Kamara. Additionally, Latavius Murray is more than capable of filling in taking the load on the ground. We have this one as Saints (-6) on a neutral field, so at Soldier Field we will gladly take the 3.5.  That hook is a great insurance policy in what should be a fairly tight game.  Look for this one to turn on a turnover or two forced by this up and coming New Orleans defense. We wouldn’t hate to get another blessing from the Pope on gameday, but don’t need it.

 

[6.6 Units] New England Patriots (-9.5) at NY Jets - WIN
6.6 Units – NE -9.5 or less 
3.3 Units – NE -10 
No Action – NE -10.5 or more 
  
Just like going against the Titans, we finally get to be ON the Patriots. Through 6 weeks, New England is clearly the class of the NFL once again, but this time it is their defense that is leading the way. Tommy and the boys are still a top 10 offense, but the defense has been the driving force. With the return of Sam Darnold, this is certainly a different Jets offense, which is to say it is probably not the 2nd worst offense in the NFL, but they will not be putting up big numbers against this Pats D. On the other side of the ball, we were led to believe the Jets defense was going to be very good this season, but our current rankings have them as a slightly worse than average group. This game is supposed to be a rivalry, but it hasn’t felt that way in a long time. However, Bill B and the rest of the Patriots still enjoy running it up when they get the chance. This line has been waffling between 9.5 and 10, and we LOVE it at 9.5, but 10 points is a key number that makes this one decidedly less attractive. This is the Monday night game, but don’t wait till Monday to secure the juicy 9.5.

 

 


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