NFL Week 6 Winners
[6.6 Units] Tennessee Titans (-3) at home with Houston Texans
6.6 Units – TEN -4.5 or less
3.3 Units – TEN -5 or -5.5
No Action – TEN -6 or more
This one falls into head-scratcher territory for us. The Texans finally got into the win column last week with a final score against the Jags that wasn't truly reflective of how tight the game was. A 4th down conversion bust for a TD after the Jags pissed away points inside the redzone multiple times made it look like the firing of Bill O'Brien was the shot in the arm the Texans needed. In reality, the problems that plagued the Texans with their 0-4 start are still there and will likely rear their head against a stronger opponent this week. The Titans throttled the Bills at home and are a very complete team. This should be a touchdown+ spread, so we are going to expect the Titans to perform at a similar level they've displayed over the last 10+ games, and the same for Texans. If those two teams show up, this should be an easy coast to a big cover.
[6.6 Units] San Francisco 49ers (+3) at home with LA Rams
6.6 Units – SF +3 or more
3.3 Units – SF +2.5
No Action – SF +2 or less
What a beatdown for the 49ers last week... If you don't think the public perception is different after the Dolphins almost hung 50 on them, you aren't very in tune with the psyche of the Joes out there. The Rams are a slightly better team, but it's not by a 5+ point margin. After adjusting for home field, we have the 49ers as about half-point favorites based purely on the data alone. The biggest caveat for us to consider is what the QB play is going to be like for the defending NFC Champs. According to all reports and his own words, Jimmy G is in a much better place heading into this game and is ready to play. Maybe they looked past the Dolphins and didn't show up last week, but we have to assume that the 49ers are going to be playing for pride and take care of us Sunday night.
[6.6 Units] Philadelphia Eagles (+7.5) home with Baltimore Ravens
6.6 Units – PHI +7 or more
No Action – WAS +6 or less
The Eagles played a hell of a football game on the road last week against the Pittsburgh Steelers. After a pretty bad start to the season, they have looked more like the football team we expected to see in 2020 the last couple of weeks. Yes, they lost the game, but their defense was consistently causing havoc and they were flirting with the outright road upset in the later stages of the 4th quarter. Our models see them as 4-point home dogs and there hasn't been anything change for these two teams heading into Week 6. The Eagles are certainly dealing with much more of the injury woes than the Ravens, but that happened very early in the season and back-up players like Travis Fulgham have already stepped in to fill voids. This will be a very physical game and the Eagles should be able to get some impact plays from their defense to keep this one within touchdown distance.
[6.6 Units] Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) at home with Cleveland Browns
6.6 Units – PIT -3 or less
3.3 Units – PIT -3.5
No Action – PIT -4 or more
How many times have we seen the Browns build up the public trust just to let them down in crushing fashion? This line implies these two teams are evenly matched on a neutral field and we could not disagree more. The Browns have their best start in 100 years, but they still don't have the unblemished record of the Steelers. More importantly, the Steelers are better in every facet of the game...sporting a superior offense, defense, and special teams. We could talk about the Browns not winning in the Steel City since 2003 and having consistently underperformed their intrinsic ability when they enter the unfriendly confines of Heinz Field, but the most important thing is they are simply overmatched. This will likely be an entertaining game, but the Steelers will do enough down the stretch to pull out a field goal+ win.
[6.6 Units] Jacksonville Jaguars (+3) at home with Detroit Lions
6.6 Units – JAX +2 or more
3.3 Units – JAX +1 or +1.5
No Action – Pick 'em or Jags -points
Our models have the Jaguars as 2-point home favorites to take care of the visiting Lions. The Jags are still sporting a highly efficient offense and should be able to have their way against a Detroit defense we have near the bottom of our rankings. It seems like both of these teams have found every way possible to blow games that they have a shot at winning, so we are going to ignore the Jags lack of ability to close the last couple weeks. The Jaguars may not have proven to be closers, but that is still a much better thing than the affinity the Lions have shown for finding impossible ways to lose games week after week when they are in good position. Any time you get points at home for a team playing this Matt Patricia-led squad, you gotta take 'em.
[6.6 Units] Denver Broncos (+10) at New England Patriots
6.6 Units – DEN +9 or more
3.3 Units – DEN +8 or +8.5
No Action – DEN +7.5 or less
Proceed with caution here. This is actually the systems number 1 play of the week because it only has the Broncos as about 5-point underdogs, but there is a lot of uncertainty about which players will be taking the field. At time of writing, Melvin Gordon and Noah Fant have been ruled out, but it still looks like Drew Lock will be healthy enough to go. The Patriots have had multiple days of shutting down the team facility over the last two weeks, but who the hell even knows what impact that is having. This game is a perfect encapsulation of the challenges the 2020 season is presenting. The data is overwhelming enough that we are going to ride with it, but if Lock is a late scratch, we suggest hedging your way out of it or decreasing your unit exposure.// ]]>