NFL Week 6 - Pick Recap

Week 6 was a winning one for they boys. We were 3-2 good for +3.8 units. For the season the Greenzone is even at 19-19. We are righting the ship and looking to step on the gas now that the data is getting more refined. There is still plenty of time to join us for the next 11 weeks!

Below is full recap of the previous weeks subscriber content as well our updated performance grid. 

NFL WEEK 6

The story of the season so far has been huge spreads and teams actually covering them. There are now 13 teams with scoring differentials of +/- 7 or greater and 7 teams winning or losing games by double digits or more. The past 2 seasons combined have only seen 4 teams with double digit differentials. Throw in the fact that we have teams in the running for best and worst statistical seasons of all time and you have a downright outlier of a season shaping up. While we have been on the wrong side of history throughout this weird season, we are confident that the numbers will come back towards normalcy. We have a smaller slate of games with bye weeks in full effect and limited games with value, however, we love our games. Many of you will no doubt be happy that we were able to avoid taking a side in the Dolphins/Redskins showdown.  On the flip side, we are also unable to recommend a play in the 9AM London game. Just treat it as a nice little warmup to the main event that is your boys going 5-0.

The 5-team parlay and teasers for the week are still both 0.5 units and include NO, PIT, ARI, TEN, PHI.

 

[6.6 Units] New Orleans Saints (+1.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars - WIN

6.6 Units – NO +1.5 or more                                                                                 3.3 Units – NO PK                                                                                                     No Action – NO -.5 or less

The New Orleans Saints, even with playing two and a half of their five games without Brees at QB, are on the verge of being one of our top-5 teams in the league.  That shouldn’t come as a major shocker to anyone, considering they have a 4-1 record and have played a very hard schedule.  Our models have them as over 7-point favorites on a neutral field and still have them winning this game by about 1.5 to 3.5-points, even with it being playing in Jacksonville.  The Jags have made great progress on the offensive side of the ball with the unexpected efficiency of Gardner Minshew, but have fallen off quite dramatically on the defensive side of the ball.  This live market line has moved to Jags -2.5 on the news that Kamara is questionable for the Saints after sitting out full practices on Thursday and Friday.  However, he was a participant at the Wednesday walkthrough and did not miss any game action last week.  We like it at +1.5, we like it at +2.5, with or without Kamara.  This Saints defense should be able to keep the Jags in check and Sean Payton will have a plan to exploit a defense that has given up a lot of “busts” that turn into big plays for opponents of the Jags.  We always love getting points for a small road dog we have as a vastly superior squad and this game is no exception.
[6.6 Units] Pittsburgh Steelers (+6.5) at Los Angeles Chargers - WIN
6.6 Units – PIT +6.5 or more
3.3 Units – PIT +5 or more
No Action – PIT +4.5 or less
The Pittsburgh Steelers are going to be starting their third quarterback of the young season after Big Ben’s rusty elbow and possibly the “oh shiitttt” hit of the year on Mason Rudolph last week.  Stepping into the role will be undrafted first year man, Devlin Hodges…affectionately known by teammates and insider Steeler fans as “Duck”.  Don’t ask us about the nickname, but we can confirm this dude can play.  He had a great pre-season, which led to the Steelers willingness to ship off Josh Dobbs for a draft pick, and played extremely well last week against a tough Ravens defense.  That’s not to overlook the fact that he likely received extremely limited to no practice reps given the focus on making sure Rudolph was prepared.  On his four drives last week he got points on two, had a 40-yard drive that stalled, and completed a 10-yard pass to Juju who fumbled away the game.  Our models have this game right at 3-points.  We are confident the drop-off from Ben to Rudolph to Duck is being quantified to a reasonable level and will take a Steelers team that appears to be turning a corner.  
[6.6 Units] Arizona Cardinals (+2.5) at home with Atlanta Falcons - WIN
6.6 Units – ARI +2.5 or more
3.3 Units – ARI +1.5
No Action – ARI +1 or less

What a beauty of a game we have here.  Odds are, if you aren’t from Atlanta or Arizona, you won’t be tuning in.  This is the battle for 2-wins, and also could end up having an important seeding impact….for the 2020 NFL Draft.  There isn’t anything sexy about this game…it’s almost comically a match-up of very bad equals.  Both of these offenses are hovering in our 20-25 range, both defenses are in our bottom-5, and both special teams are on the cusp of our bottom-5.  Our models have this game as a pick ‘em to small favorite for the home team Cardinals….essentially, the Falcons may be slightly better on a neutral field, but when you factor in the stadium factor, we see the Cardinals pulling it out.  This is the kind of home GreenZone game that has been extremely reliable over the years… just a sleepy one nobody is paying attention to with a name the public likes even though that assessment is based off of previous year’s performance.

[6.6 Units] Tennessee Titans (+2) at Denver Broncos - LOSS
6.6 Units – TEN +2 or more
3.3 Units – TEN +1
No Action – TEN PK or less  
We just can’t seem to get away from these Titans…the 2nd half of last season and the 1st half of this year have featured a lot of games with us on Tennessee, but we swear, we are not fans of this franchise.  We don’t bet teams, and we don’t bet numbers (what does that even mean), but we do bet value.  For whatever reason, maybe because everybody in Nashville is too busy scoping out bachelorette parties to place a bet, the Titans get a lot less action than is commensurate with their ability.  The Titans are league average according to our models at literally 16th in the league overall.  The Broncos, at 1-4, are a bottom-5 team for us at this point.  Last week showed signs of maybe moving more in that last-10 type range, but we have to trust our stuff and acknowledge the Titans are a substantially better team on a neutral field.  We have them winning this game outright, so we will gladly take a couple points as a cherry on top.  

 

[6.6 Units] Philadelphia Eagles (+3) at Minnesota Vikings - LOSS
6.6 Units – PHI +3 or more 
3.3 Units – PHI +2.5

No Action – PHI +1.5 or less  

The Eagles have missed some opportunities this year, but have been a very impressive team to us when taking a deeper dive on their analytics.  We have them as basically a top-5 offense, top-5 defense, and a top-10ish special teams unit.  When you can put all three phases of the game together, it makes it much more likely you are going to win and also makes it less likely that a blow-up is going to take you out of a game.  Minnesota has looked really good against bad teams and hasn’t done a whole lot when they are challenged by a good defense.  The Eagles have an elite run defense which should allow them to basically make the Vikings offense one dimensional.  Once that happens, just sit back and enjoy as the Birds turn up the heat on Cousins.  We have value with the +3, but think this is one the Eagles could go on the road and win, similar to their performance against the Packers a couple weeks ago.


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