NFL Week 5 Pick Recap
To make sure we accurately reflect our record and picks to both our subscribers and potential subscribers, we'll post our write up from the previous weekend each Tuesday. Attached is the NFL analysis and write up from Week 5 that was sent to all our subscribers. If you'd like a free week trial, send us a message on here, firstname.lastname@example.org, or on twitter @ProMathletics.
The boys are back in town…the boys are back in town…the boys are back in toowwwooowwwooownnnn! We got things back on track last week, crushing another 17.7 Units with our 4-1 GreenZone performance. Sprinkle in another Thursday Night Football win with our Bucs +5.5 play (sorry dudes who got it at 4.5) and we are rocking out at 20-11-1 for a 64.5% win rate on the year! That’s good for plus 51.75 Units! That’s right…if you are betting based on 10k bankroll you are already up $5,175 betting our plays as published…that money you spent on the subscription was the best investment of your life.
We have six more GreenZone games tomorrow for what should be an amazing little #SundayFundsDay. Hopefully, you are lucky enough to have Columbus Day off and can help us get the rare 7-0 week by giving 100% effort crushing cold ones and sliders. We need you guys just as much as you need us. The slate of games on Sunday feel a little too good to be true. It seems the market is failing to reward a lot of the teams we have already been on who have been taking care of biz. The Bills, Chiefs, and Lions have been staples of our wagering diet so far this season and we are more than happy to keep on jamming them until the public gets on board and the value subsides. Until that point, we are going to have to just keep on WINNING!
NOTE: [Units] outlined next to each pick in terms of “to risk” % of bankroll. 5 units = 5% of bankroll or $50 on $1k. Our bet sizing methodology utilizes the Kelly Equation, and more specifically, half-Kelly. The sizes are descending because of “assumed losses” which necessitate dynamically reducing the bankroll because the outcomes are not sequential. We are going to put out a lengthier discussion and explanation of why our unit sizes are what they are, but for now, just trust we know what we are doing or flat-bet if that makes you more comfortable.
[5.9 Units] Buffalo Bills (+3) at Cincinnati
For some reason, it still doesn’t take much to get Bills fans feeling like this is the year they will finally make the playoffs. It’s been 17 seasons since the Music City Miracle put an end to the Bills last playoff run. Well, don’t look now, because the Bills may actually be good this year. They have already beaten the Broncos and took down the Falcons in Atlanta (no small feat). New head coach Sean McDermott’s been doing it with defense. The Bills have the number 1 scoring defense, giving up just under 14 points per game, having given up a league best 4 touchdowns. Their offense is still middle of the pack, so if that improves, look out. As for Cincy, let’s not assume they have it all figured out after replacing their offensive coordinator and scoring 3 TDs against the Packers and taking advantage of the garbage Browns. Andy Dalton is still turnover prone (4INTs already) and they are averaging just 88 ypg on the ground. Look for the Bills to apply pressure and create advantageous opportunities for Tyrod and the boys to work with short fields.
[5.5 Units] New York Jets (pk) at Cleveland
Everyone at the start of the season assumed the loser of this game was going to have the #1 pick in next year’s draft. We still believe that to be true. While the New York Football Jets have probably missed the top pick train, they’re going to win this game. To their credit, the Browns did look competitive week one against the Steelers, but they have been getting progressively worse every week since. The loss to the Colts 28-31 was not as close as the final score indicated and the Bengals absolutely throttled them last week. DeShone Kizer is still trying to figure things out, throwing a league high 8 interceptions already. The return of Myles Garrett provides some hope, but he can only play one position. The Jets winning combination of a strong running game (130 ypg) and a young defense that has suddenly come alive the last two games (just 2 touchdowns) should probably be favored by at least 3 in this one.
[5.2 Units] Kansas City Chiefs (pk) at Houston
The Texans scoring 57 points last week has to be driving the public perception that this offense and Deshaun Watson have arrived and deserve to be a pick ‘em against the 4-0 Chiefs. Although they’ve made strides since the demotion of Tom Savage, this Texans offense is still way behind the Chiefs balanced attack. We have the Chiefs offense as our number one ranked unit through the first four weeks. The Texans on the other hand are league average at best. Defensively, both teams are going to be in the top 10 for the entire season. In a game where all you have to do is win, we like taking Alex Smith who is about as consistent as they come. He has been taking some more shots this year and the skill guys they have around him have been making explosive plays week in and week out. This should be a tightly contested game, but we have the Chiefs as about a 3-5 point favorite. We feel comfortable taking the rookie QB to come back to earth as he faces by far the best defense of his young NFL career.
[4.9 Units] Detroit Lions (-2.5) home with Panthers
Here we are again! Five weeks in a row we will be on the Lions and so far they have treated us pretty well, going 3-1 ATS that missed 4-0 by 6 inches. The Lions defense and special teams have been carrying the load for them, with the offense playing much more conservative than they need to. The defense is tied for the lead league lead in takeaways, with 11, and thanks to the conservative offense (only 2 turnovers), they lead the league in turnover differential at +9. The Panthers on the other hand are tied for 2nd-worst in the league at a differential of -5. The Panthers have had added distractions this week with Cam Newton offending all the women out there who study their route trees on a daily basis and we don’t anticipate their offense repeating their performance from last week. The Lions are well coached on D by Teryl Austin and their secondary is experienced and have been playing together for a couple years. The Panthers capitalized on NE cutting dudes loose and running wide-ass-open last week, the Lions most likely won’t be as generous. We have this as about a 4.5pt game and we feel just fine riding with the Leos once again.
[4.6 Units] Indianapolis Colts (-1.5) home with 49ers
We are recommending backing the Colts, but we aren’t recommending anyone actually watches this struggle fest. The Colts looked poised to take care of biz for the first half last week in Seattle, but, boy, did things take a turn for the worse after halftime. Can’t let biases get in the way of objective decision making and that’s what we plan on doing here. The models have the Colts by about 4-6 points and there isn’t any noise in the data that would make us kick this game out. The Colts were down to their third-string center last week, but are getting back starter, Kelly, who should help give Brissett some more time to operate. Speaking of, Brissett has been pretty solid during his short tenure in Indy when he’s had time. We don’t anticipate the 49ers generating anywhere near the chaos the Seahawks did on Sunday. We’ll roll with the model and take faith in the fact that we get the 49ers playing an early game East needing a road win to beat us.
[4.3 Units] Miami Dolphins (+3) home with Titans
The models have us taking the Dolphins even when assuming Marcus Mariota is able to play. The Titans got absolutely thrashed last week at Houston, but are still 3-point road favorites most likely without their starting QB. There is a lot of “noise” in this line with the uncertain QB situation for the Titans, but we like grabbing the Dolphins as home dawgs while the model has them as about 2.5 point favorites. Keep an eye on this line if Mariota is officially ruled out. If it moves off of that +3 towards a pick ‘em we’d suggest reducing your bet size or passing on this one altogether. We like it getting 3 points as home team going against a backup quarterback despite how much the Jay Cutler-led Dolphins offense has struggled to find consistency thus far.