NFL Week 4 Winners - Pick Recap
The boys are back! After two mediocre weeks we righted the ship and got back our much deserved units. We had a monster weekend going 5-1 good for +25.15 units. If only we could have got one more score from the Phins we would have been in the 45+ unit territory. For the year we are now up +6.9 units with a 15-11 overall record in the GreenZone. Below is what was sent to Subscribers last Saturday.
NFL Week 4 Subscriber Content
Welp, that sucked. No other way to put it, back to back subpar weeks this early in the season hurts. We went through a similar rocky start to the year in 2018 and still were able to hit our historical long-run win rates by about Week 10 or so. Everyone wants easy success and instant gratification, we get it. But, fortunately, the football season is a marathon and not a sprint. The trust in our system and our process have not wavered during any of the tough patches we have gone through in our five years of doing this and they won’t change now. We’ve been here before, we’ll be here again, but at the end of the season we know we are going to be jamming 60% in the GreenZone and stacking plenty of units! Now let’s go get that 6-0!
The 5-team parlay and teasers for this week are still both 0.5-Units and include: CHI, JAX, DET, NO, and MIA.
[6.6 Units] Chicago Bears (-1.5) at home with Minnesota Vikings - WIN
6.6 Units – CHI -2.5 or less
3.3 Units - CHI -2 or more
No Action – CHI -3.5 or more
Our models have the Bears as evenly matched, to slightly better, on a neutral field versus the Vikings. While the Vikings have exhibited a bit more balance so far this season, with both an above average offense and defense, the Bears top-5 defense has been downright stingy. The Bears have struggled - towards the last third of the pack- in our offensive evaluation, but they are at home in a divisional game essentially just needing to pull out the win. We have this as a 4-point game in favor of the Bears, so to be under the critical -3, this one is a wheelhouse Greenie. If you want the formula for how the Bears can pull out the win, look no further than their performance on Monday night. The Vikings have struggled on the interior offensive line and to make matters worse, starting RG (Kline) is officially out this week with a concussion. So now, in addition to having a rookie center who is currently grading out below 40% on ProFootballFocus (not good), they are rotating in a depth guard to stand next to him. Chicago will be able to easily control the line of scrimmage when they are on defense and if there is one person who needs a clean pocket and some run game, it’s Kirk Cousins. We think the athletiscim of Trubisky is a slight advantage in this matchup where the defense is going to dictate. Both QBs are probabaly going to be running for their lives, so we don’t hate being able to be on the one who can actually run.
[6.6 Units] Jacksonville Jaguars (+3) at Denver - WIN SU
6.6 Units – JAX +3 or more
3.3 Units – JAX +2.5
No Action – JAX +2 or less
The 2019 Jacksonville Jaguars season has been nothing short of a soap opera. They lost Nick Foles basically as soon as the season started and had to rush in an unheralded lower round rookie draft pick and then had their HC and star corner get into a screaming match that has led to Ramsey being M.I.A. outside of the game last Sunday. With all of that acknowledged, they have still played some pretty good football. They lost to the Chiefs (no shame in that), went for two at Houston to try to win the game, and then methodically took care of the Titans last week. Everyone knows, with or without Ramsey, that this Jaguars defense can absolutely turn it on when they want. Now that they have a quarterback who is taking care of the ball and playing efficiently, they could make another run at the playoffs. The Broncos have flown under the radar for being pretty disappointing this year. They obviously have some studs on the edge and hired one of the best DC in the game to be their head coach, but have yet to produce much on the defensive side. They went out and paid Flacco to hopefully be their Peyton Manning 2.0, but Flacco is continuing to be exactly who you thought he was. There is a little bit of noise with the Jags headlines, but the fact remains that our models simply have them as a better team than the Broncos. Ramsey is officially listed as questionable, but with or without him, we still like the Jags to win this one outright.
[6.6 Units] Detroit Lions (+6.5) at home with Chiefs - WIN
6.6 Units – DET +6 or more
3.3 Units – DET +4.5 to 5.5
No Action – DET +4 or less
The public continues their love affair with the Chiefs even though they didn’t cover last week after that beautiful back-door job by the Ravens. Plain and simple, our models have this game at Detroit +2.5. The Lions are somehow unbeaten after blowing an 18-point lead Week 1 and then playing the Chargers and Eagles. Their recipe for relative success so far this season has been balance, not only with the rush and pass on offense, but more importantly, in all three phases of the game. They have been a top-10 defense, with the secondary surprisingly playing the best in the league so far. Offensively, they have taken care of the football and sustained long drives. Both of those things will be critically important for them (and us!) on Sunday. Yes, the Chiefs have a top-3 offense, but their defense is in the bottom-third of the league. We like the Lions to sustain long drives vs. this Chiefs defense and do the best thing you can against Mahomes… keep him off the field. The Lions took a similar approach last year in a home game against the Patriots as about touchdown dogs that feels very reminiscent to this one. Look for the Chiefs to win this one right around 3 and we’ll collect back to back covers against the public darlings.
[6.6 Units] New Orleans (+2.5) at home with Cowboys - WIN SU
6.6 Units – NO +1 or more
3.3 Units – Pick ‘em
No Action – NO -1 or more
It’s a prime-time Sunday Night Football game at the Superdome and the Saints are underdogs?? Well, obviously Drew Brees is not in the lineup, but there are 53-man rosters in the NFL for a reason. The Saints went on the road and got the win in Seattle in pretty sloppy conditions last Sunday. Yes, they did have 3 defensive/special teams touchdowns and that’s not sustainable, but the quality of their defensive depth and execution on special teams is real. Our models have the Saints winning this game outright…by anywhere from 3.5 to 0.5-points. The Cowboys are 3-0 and getting a lot of hype, but our quantitative models aren’t really that impressed by what they’ve done so far. They have played the Giants (with Eli), got tested by the Redskins, and then went through the motions against the Dolphins at home…not exactly the same thing as waltzing into the Superdome on a Sunday night. If Drew Brees is playing in this game, the line is probably New Orleans -3 to -5 territory…we’ve done the work and believe the value is still there for Who Dat to close out our week with a cover.
[6.6 Units] Miami Dolphins (+15.5) at home with Chargers - LOSS (Teaser WIN)
6.6 Units – MIA +14 or more
3.3 Units – MIA +13 or +13.5
No Action – MIA +12.5 or less
Last week wasn’t great, but one of the games that made it a little better was the Jets +22 against the Patriots. We had feedback from several subscribers who refused to take it, and our guess is the same may be true for this play. Here is the thing with this game…the Chargers aren’t very good. There, we said it. Right now, we have the Chargers as one of our worst-10 in the league teams and that’s being heavily influeced by a bottom-3 defense and bottom-3 special teams. Obviously, the Dolphins are our 32nd ranked squad, but when you are getting say #32 against #25 with 15+ points at home…. This year has been a little bit of an outlier with how bad the Dolphins and Jets have looked at times, but over the 15-years of NFL data we have, double digit road favorite covers are very hard to achieve. Yes, the Dolphins are worst in the league level, but the Chargers aren’t even cracking our top 50% right now. It’s not sexy, but we have to take the points and as long as the Chargers play at close to the same level they have demonstrated thus far into the season, we will be good just like last week on the Jets.
[6.6 Units] Tennessee (+4) at Atlanta Falcons - WIN SU
6.6 Units – TEN +3.5 or more
3.3 Units – TEN +3
No Action – TEN +2.5 or less
This is purely a numbers play for us. We hate the idea of the Titans going into Atlanta and to be perfectly candid, don’t think the Titans have looked that good the last couple weeks. That being said, our models still have Tennessee as a better football team than the Atlanta Falcons. The Falcons are in our bottom-10 while the Titans are slightly above league average. It is a little added bonus that the Titans have 3 days of extra rest and prep time after the egg they laid last week on Thursday Night Football. We would love to have a narrative that made you get the warm and fuzzies about this game, but the reality is even we don’t have the warm and fuzzies. This is a true “trust the system” game and those tend to win more than they lose.