NFL Week 3 - Pick Recap
Week 3 was just tough to stomach for the team. The Titans spotted the Jags 14 points early, gave up 9 sacks, had 101 penalty yards, lost a fumble, but somehow out gained Jax by 50 yards and controlled the time of possession by 10 minutes. The Niners spotted the Steelers five possessions via turnovers, but out gained them 436 to 239, had 12.5 minutes more of possession a cool 26 first downs compared to their 11, and couldn't cover the spread. Seattle coughed up a scope and score, and a punt return TD to spot NO 14 easy points before we even knew what hit us. The ultimate kick in the dick was Case Keenum committing a CAREER HIGH 5 turnovers all while still having a shot at backdooring the spread before his final turnover put that to bed. If we would have caught just one or two proverbial bounces, the weekend looks drastically different.
We went 2-5 and gave back -25 units to the house. Our GreenZone results for the year stand at 10-10. Our bread and butter GreenZone home games that historically perform north of 60% are having a rough start. We fully expect a 60% aggregate finish for the GreenZone by year end. Stay disciplined and focused as the public perception is still driving a huge amount of value that we will capitalize on. Below is our updated YTD performance, followed by the exact write up that was sent to our subscribers. Remember WE ONLY BET AND RECOMMEND THE GREENZONE GAMES.
NFL WEEK 3
Like Bill Belichick’s press conference on Friday, we are on to Week 3. Gave a lot of that Week 1 house money back last week, but it’s all good. It’s a long season and we still have almost 20 weeks of NFL Winners to pad that bankroll. We got some fortune from the gambling gods this week and ended up getting value on some games that we are very happy to be on.
The 5-team parlay and teasers for this week are still both 0.5-Units and include: SF, OAK, WAS, SEA, and BAL.
[6.6 Units] San Francisco 49ers (-6.5) at home with Steelers
6.6 Units – SF -7.5 or less
3.3 Units - SF -8
No Action – SF -8.5 or more
We are starting off with a rare one that actually makes us feel at ease. Typically, when a starting QB goes down the overreaction is so harsh by the public that our models end up having a lot of value on the team trotting out the replacement QB. That is not the case for this game out in SF on Sunday. Our models have this at a 9 to 10-point game in favor of the 9ers, who are coming off an extremely efficient and complete performance in Cincinnati last weekend. Our models have the 49ers as a top-5 team thus far in 2019 and on the flip side, have the Steelers as a bottom-5 team. Mason Rudolph looked fine last week while stepping in for Big Ben, but the Steelers issues run far deeper than just the quarterback position. They have faced two very good opponents in New England and Seattle, but the data and the tape show they have a lot of work to do if they want to compete with this hot San Francisco squad. When we are getting 3+ points of value on a home team, we gotta grab it.
[6.6 Units] Oakland Raiders (+8.5) at Minnesota
6.6 Units – OAK +7 or more
3.3 Units – OAK +6 or +6.6
No Action – OAK +5.5 or less
The second quarter of the Raiders/Chiefs game was a curse that has now turned into a blessing. Oakland played 45 minutes of great football last weekend, but unfortunately had a 15-minute period where they were outscored 28-0 due to Patrick Mahomes entering some sort of blackout where he was incapable of doing anything except for delivery some of the most ridiculously perfect throws you’ll ever see. That aside, we have these two teams as almost being equal on a neutral field. They are both a mixture of slightly above and below league average on offense and defense and when we stack rank our grades 1-32, they are literally one slot away from each other. For two teams that are essentially equal and league average, we have VERY strong data that this game should end up somewhere in the 2 to 4-points range in favor of the home team. We run into teams like this every year where we get them for multiple weeks in a row, but it is very evident that the data on the boys in black is giving us a contrarian view vs. how the public feels about them. This thing is pushing up to 9-points at some books at time of writing, don’t let that one bad quarter last week scare you away from taking basically double digits in an even match up!
[6.6 Units] Washington Redskins (+4) at home with the Bears
6.6 Units – WAS +3.5 or more
3.3 Units – WAS +3
No Action – Was +2.5 or less
The Redskins are a very solid 0-2 team. They almost were able to pull off the outright win in Philly as double-digit dogs and then held their own against a Cowboys team firing on all cylinders. These guys are over a field goal underdogs in a prime time matchup, while our models have it as more of a 1 to 1.5-point game. The Bears looked like garbage in their opener against Green Bay before somehow pulling out a last second win in Denver last week. This is back to back road games for the Bears after that emotional win, compared to the Redskins second home game in a row for a young season where they have not been rewarded with a win for their quality play. The systems like it, and we definitely like getting the +4 instead of +3 where we thought the market would get to, so trust the numbers and let’s cap the week on Monday night with a W.
[6.6 Units] Seattle Seahawks (-4) at home with Saints
6.6 Units – SEA -4.5 or less
3.3 Units – SEA -5 or 5.5
No Action – SEA -6 or more
File another one in the “how the hell did we get this spread” category for Week 3. The sample size for the Saints without Brees is very limited. He has only missed one game with injury since becoming a Saint in 2006, and then has sat out a couple of the Week 17 “rest everyone who matters” games. It’s impossible to know what the totality of the impact is, but even if Brees was in the lineup, our models would still like the Seahawks around -3. We don’t know the exact number, but we are highly confident that the drop-off from Brees to Bridgewater/Hill is at LEAST 1-point. Teddy Bridgewater looked terrible in the Week 17 game against the Panthers last year and he looked even worse when he stepped into duty last weekend. There has been rumors that the Saints will feature more Taysom Hill at QB this week and try to run the ball with more zone-read and option concepts. We mentioned it in the write-up last week when we had the Seahawks as dogs in Pittsburgh, but we love this Seahawks front-7. As a little cherry on top, they are getting Ziggy Ansah out there on Sunday to add a little more ridiculousness to the athleticism and physicality. The Saints will figure out a way to get some wins during Brees absence, but going into Seattle and trying to run a limited, one-dimensional, offense is going to be blood in the water for the Hawks. We love this game and think it could end up being a blowout.
6.6 Units] Baltimore Ravens +6.5 at Kansas City
6.6 Units – BAL +5 or more
3.3 Units – BAL +4.5
No Action – BAL +4 or less
Our models have Baltimore as a better team than the 6.5 to now 5.5-point favorite Chiefs. It is well documented that the Chiefs have an explosive offense, but the Ravens are also currently in our top-3 offensive sides. The Chiefs can score points in a hurry, but the Ravens 2019 blend of a more mature Lamar and Hollywood Brown taking the top off the defense has proved to be extremely efficient and explosive as well. The difference maker for us in the game is the defense of the Baltimore Ravens. They have created a fluid, free flowing, approach to handling the modern NFL spread offense and are easily going to be a top-3 defense in our final rankings. The same cannot be said of the Chiefs. Given the home field advantage, we see this as about a 2-point win for the Chiefs, but we felt great about it at 6.5 and still like it even if it gets down to the +4.5-point territory.
[3.3 Units] New York Jets (+22.5) at New England
3.3 Units – NYJ +17.5 or more
No Action – NYJ +17 or less
Eek…what is there to be said. Our model is sounding the bell on both this one and the Dolphins (which we kicked…you’re welcome). The fact of the matter is 20-point+ spreads in the NFL are on the periphery of most of our “normal” sample set. There aren’t a lot of games at those levels, so it’s harder to have confidence in the data. That being said, the Jets are not anywhere near as bad as the Dolphins at this point. It’s not ideal to have a 3rd string QB going against the greatest of all time, but the Jets defense will hopefully be able to keep us in this one. We aren’t going to over-expose ourselves, but as a matter of principle, have to take the 20+ points for this divisional matchup that are usually more tightly contested than the data would suggest.