NFL Week 3 Pick Recap

Each week we'll be providing our pick recap to validate our performance and give everyone an in depth view of what our subscribers receive. Let's have a look at the selections below from week 3. 

The GreenZone had its best performance YTD going 4-2! This equated to a very impressive +12.10 Unit return. We also hit our first Teaser of the year adding an additional +2.25 Units, to bring our weekly performance to +13.85 Units! The Yellow and RedZone were strong as they finished 6-4. Below is a breakdown of the entire Zone performances, along with Bankroll return based on our recommended unit sizing of each GreenZone game and exotic bets.

Furthermore, each write up for the 6 games we covered for our subscribers is included. This is sent each week for every GreenZone game, and we will also do a FREE write up on the Thursday and Monday night games regardless of Zone. See below for our in depth analysis on our picks from last week. 

 

[6.6 Units] Washington Redskins (+2.5) home with Packers - WIN

6.6 Units – WSH +2.5 or more

3.3 Units – WSH +2

No Action – WSH +1.5 or less

We have the Redskins as 1.5 to 2-point favorites in this game, so to be getting 2.5 to 3-points at home is value we have to take.  Despite Aaron Rodgers still being the best football player on the planet, Green Bay’s offense is not as prolific as it has been in years past.  Our models have Green Bay and Washington basically even in terms of expected offensive production, but defensively, the Redskins are a superior squad.  Last year, the Redskins defense ended up right at a top-10 level during the full season while Green Bay was about 20th.  Green Bay seems to have stayed pretty flat year-over-year and have maybe even lost some of their pass rush as father time is taking a toll on some of their key front-7 players.  On the flip side, Washington looks like they are even better than last year and have a great mix of youth and guys in their prime.  The Redskins loss last week to the Colts is influencing this line, but if you watch the film, the Redskins were far and away the better team.  A couple random redzone turnovers, a missed field goal, and some good breaks for the Colts led to the final scoreboard outcome, but we aren’t Joes who see a final score and say “oh the Redskins stink”.  We rely on the data and the film, and in this case, all of the factors are pointing to a Redskins home win.

 

[6.6 Units] Detroit Lions (+7) home with Patriots - WIN

6.6 Units – DET +6.5 or more

3.3 Units – DET +6

No Action – DET +5.5 or less

“What the fuck are these guys doing going against Aaron Rodgers AND Tom Brady in the same week?”  Is probably what you are thinking to yourself right now.  We understand the discomfort, but if consistently winning meant just taking the best QB on the field each week, you wouldn’t need us.  Both of these teams are flawed at this point in the season, especially on the defensive side of the ball.  The Lions have had some very random special teams plays and horrible luck with fumble recoveries (which are completely random) that have led to a 0-2 record with a very public beating by the Jets in Week 1.  Last week, the Lions outplayed the 49ers on a short week with long travel and should have won the game.  They had almost 100 more total yards, but due to a fumble recovery backed up in their own territory, a kick returned to the +26, a punt return TD by Detroit called back, and an interception returned to the +6 called back, the Lions went home 0-2 with the 3-point road loss.  If the Lions would have won the game and came back 1-1, this line would probably by more in the 3 to 3.5-point range.  We aren’t confident the Lions are going to be able to stop the Patriots, but we are very confident that the Patriots defense is a mess right now and is going to struggle to get enough stops to pull away from a Lions offense that boasts a lot of weapons.  The Patriots made Blake Bortles looks like an MVP candidate last week after he barely completed anything longer than a flat route in Week 1.  We know it’s scary…we know every public bettor in the country is operating under the premise that “Detroit sucks”, but take the value and touchdown of support for the home team in primetime against a very bad defense.  Any narratives about “Belichick facing former assistants” are just media hype, in our opinion.  Belichick isn’t out there playing defense and it doesn’t look like Patrick Chung and Trey Flowers are going to be either, so block out the noise and stay disciplined.

 

[5.5 Units] Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5) home with Colts - LOSS

5.5 Units – PHI -7 or less

2.75 Units – PHI -7.5

No Action – PHI -8 or more

Both of these teams are off to 1-1 starts and both of them have their young franchise QBs back from potentially career-altering injuries.  This is the first game back for Wentz, so there could be a bit of rust, but you gotta believe he is as close to 100% as one could be without actual live action if the Eagles are bringing him back.  Foles was more than capable of holding down the QB spot, so there must not be any doubt about Wentz’s readiness.  Wentz aside, we have the Eagles o-line ranked as our #1 unit, their defense is substantially better than Indy, and the offensive production for the Eagles should greatly surpass that of the Colts over the course of the season.  The Eagles are a little short at skill guys with Jay Ajayi and Darren Sproles both out, but we think it should be business as usual for the Birds at home.  They have had a tough start to the schedule with matchups against the Falcons and then the red-hot Bucs in Tampa, but this home game against a much worse Colts roster should result in a double-digit win.

 

[5.5 Units] Miami Dolphins (-3) home with Raiders - WIN

5.5 Units – MIA -3 or less

2.75 Units – MIA -3.5

No Action – MIA -4 or more

Don’t look now, but this Dolphins team is in what we like to call the “sneaky good” territory.  Their defense, despite losing Suh, is vastly improved since last year.  Likewise, their offense looks 10 times better than last year with Tannehill back from his ACL injury last season.  The Raiders look to be getting back to the offensive production level you’d expect instead of the disaster that took the field for most of the 2017 season.  However, the defense that was already really bad last year, looks even worse thus far.  It makes sense that you would struggle to create a pass rush when you trade one of, if not the best, edge rusher in the league for future draft picks.  The difference in defenses is where our models are getting most of the value in this matchup.  Long story short, the Dolphins are the better and more complete team, have home field, and the Raiders are making the long trip East for an early kick.  We have the Dolphins as 4.5 to 5.5-point favorites and don’t see any caveat that would justify ignoring that sort of value.

 

[5.5 Units] Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5) home with 49ers - WIN

5.5 Units – KC -6.5 or less

2.75 Units – KC -7

No Action – KC -7.5 or more

When we saw this game identified as having intrinsic value into the GreenZone, we had to do a double take.  It seems as if the Chiefs would be getting a lot of public play and thus, overvalued, after the impressive 2-0 start and huge offensive numbers.  However, the relatively poor defensive play must be weighing heavily on the minds of folks and keeping this line down in the value range for us.  Patrick Mahomes looks like the real deal…which makes a lot of sense.  As well as Andy Reid knows QB play, it would have been shocking for the Chiefs to trade away Alex Smith and not have complete confidence that Mahomes was ready to go.  It certainly doesn’t hurt that the Chiefs have the best set of playmakers in the league, but the efficiency that Mahomes is achieving seems like it is here to stay.  Defensively, it is still too early in the year to make a definitive judgement on the Chiefs.  They played AT the Chargers and AT the Steelers…both of which have very strong offenses (and defenses for that matter).  Getting a home game at Arrowhead should help out the defense, as it makes it considerably harder for the visiting 49ers to communicate.  Our algorithms have the 49ers as a bottom third of the league team.  We know Jimmy G got a huge deal and they definitely aren’t as bad as they were the last couple years, but there’s not a whole lot to be excited about.  Even if the Chiefs defense continues to struggle a bit, we don’t think the 49ers have the firepower to keep pace with what the Chiefs are going to do on offense.  

 


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