NFL Week 2 - Pick Recap
Week 2 was a rocky one for the team. We went 2-4 and gave back -17.4 units to the house. Our GreenZone results for the year stand at 8-5 (61.5%) and up 6.75 units. Week 3 has historically been great for us as we look to get back some units. Stay disciplined and focused as the public perception is still driving a huge amount of value that we will capitalize on. Below is our updated YTD performance, followed by the exact write up that was sent to our subscribers. Remember WE ONLY BET AND RECOMMEND THE GREENZONE GAMES.
NFL WEEK 2
There is a great deal of confidence that by the end of the season we are going to be up a whole bunch of units and have a 60%+ overall win rate. It’s been achieved every year that ProMathletics has been a company and was done for years before that existence. That being said, it is ALWAYS nice to come out of the gate and get some house money in our coffers. Last year, it was a sideways grind for about the first third of the season which makes it more difficult for some of our less experienced customers to #trust. The 6-1 +25-unit we had Week 1 this year gives us some wiggle room and we hope to continue that momentum this week.
Week 2 has historically been very good to us. The public is as emotional and skittish as it gets and for that reason, overreactions create ample opportunity. In the game of picking winners, it is very rare that your heart and eyes do not lie. We joke internally that if a game makes us feel like we are going to puke because we have to take it, it’s probably going to work out. We have a couple of those this week that people aren’t going to like (you’re welcome!)…and with the process and historical results we’ve built up, that makes us feel VERY good about this second slate of games for the young season.
One week in and we already hit one 5-team teaser. These added to the net returns last year and we are confident they will in 2019. Plus, there is nothing better than a winning weekend that includes hitting the elusive 5-team parlay. The 0.5-unit parlay and teaser teams for this week will be MIA (getting 24.5!), OAK, TEN, SEA, and NYG! Let’s goooo…
[6.6 Units] Miami Dolphins (+18.5) at home with New England Patriots - LOSS
6.6 Units – MIA +16 or more
3.3 Units – MIA +14.5 to +15.5
No Action – MIA +14 or less
We are going to go ahead and get this one out of the way first because we know 99% of you are saying “WHAT THE FUCKKK?!”. It’s ok, we have a handful of these every year and come out on the right side more than we do the wrong side. In fact, if you remember back to Week 14 last season we had the lowly Dolphins as big home dogs. What was the outcome? That’s right, they won the game outright even though they had our cover locked up the whole game. “That’s just one year!”, you say…nope. Tom Brady has lost 10 out of the 17 career games he’s played in Miami…he’s lost 19 total out of his 135 at Foxboro. That is an unfuckingbelievable state. We don’t base our picks on historical results between two teams in a given location, but it certainly helps us trust our numbers on this one. Yes, the Dolphins are bad and could end up having the first overall draft pick. Yes, the Patriots are good and could go to the Super Bowl (not going out on a limb on that one). Both of those things can be true and this game is still very mispriced. Our models have it at a 10 to 12-point game…so we are basically getting a free touchdown. We know some of you are going to hate this game…that’s fine, just take it because it’s going to hit.
[6.6 Units] Oakland Raiders (+7) at home with Kansas City Chiefs - LOSS
6.6 Units – OAK 6.5 or more
3.3 Units – OAK +5.5 or +6
No Action – OAK +5 or less
The Raiders are home dogs for a second week in a row to start the 2019 season despite what we felt was a very complete win in their Week 1 matchup against the Broncos. The Raiders didn’t allow a single QB hit against a very formidable pass rush and it appears the capital used to acquire starting LT Miller (1st round 2018 pick) and RT Brown (FA from New England) is paying dividends. Carr looked much more comfortable in his second year of Gruden’s complex, but very effective, system and the offensive skill guys made enough plays to put the zero snap Raiders career of Antonio Brown behind them. If the Raiders offense had that sort of productivity against a very solid Broncos defense, they should be just fine moving the ball against this suspect Chiefs defense. The Chiefs are public darlings with their high-powered offense, but we prey on the public’s googly eyes for offense. We have the Raiders as about 3-point home dogs, so to be getting 7 here is more than enough to take them back-to-back weeks.
[6.6 Units] Tennessee Titans (-3) at home with Indianapolis Colts - LOSS
6.6 Units – TEN -3.5 or less
3.3 Units – TEN -4 or -4.5
No Action – TEN -5 or more
We profited once again from the low-lying Titans last week. They aren’t flashy in any way, but they control the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball and typically avoid self-induced errors. The only thing that gives us the heebie jeebies about this game is it’s a repeat of the last 2018 NFL regular season game that cost us approximately $80,000 in the Super Contest. Other than that PTSD, this one is all systems go for us. Our models have this as about a 6.5 to 7-point win for the home squad and there aren’t any caveats after Week 1 that would make us stray from the numbers. Realistically, the largest unknown is still how big the drop will be from Andrew Luck to Jacoby, but that only plays in our favor. The Colts had an emotional, hard fought, overtime road loss last week and that’s tough to bounce back from…the Titans who rolled to a stress free win will be sharp at home and get us to +12 units on their games alone.
[6.6 Units] Seattle Seahawks (+4) at Pittsburgh Steelers - WIN
6.6 Units – SEA +3.5 or more
3.3 Units – SEA +3
No Action – SEA +2.5 or less
The Seahawks pulled out a 1-point win last week in a rainy game we were all very happy to see be tightly contested. The Bengals played a very solid game and the Seahawks performance wasn’t as bad as it felt at times. After giving up 17 points in the first half, the Hawks defense got settled in and only gave up a field goal in the second half. We are very high on this Seahawks front-7 and they basically took the game over down the stretch. The Steelers, on the other hand, looked atrocious. While the Raiders looked fine at WR without AB, it was the Steelers who looked like a bunch of lost puppies with two left hands running around trying to catch balls. Juju is getting adjusted to being the number one guy, but anyone who thinks it’s easier to produce as the #1 impact WR who has a big star on him in the weekly scouting report is crazy. The Steelers also struggled mightily to run the ball effectively, gaining just 32 yards and averaging 2.5ypc. With the combination of those two facets, it’s no surprise we had the Steelers 3-point Week 1 performance as one of our worsts of the week. There are a LOT of problems for them to get sorted out very quickly and we don’t see that happening against the speed and physicality of this Madden dynasty mode Seahawks d-line and linebacking corp. Our models have this as a 1 to 2-point game for the Steelers, so we are going to take the value, especially with getting over that FG mark. It’s 3.5 at most books at time of writing and we still like it for a full 6.6-unit play at that level.
[6.6 Units] New York Giants (+1.5) at home with Buffalo Bills - LOSS
6.6 Units – NYG +1.5 or more
3.3 Units – NYG +1
No Action – Pick ‘em or NYG -points
The New York Football Giants did not look great on the road last week against a buzz saw of a Dallas Cowboys offense. Even with that poor defensive showing in Week 1, we still had the Giants offense as a better performer than the Bills O. The Giants are banged up at WR and still waiting for Golden Tate to come back from suspension, but one important difference from this years’ Giants offense is the offensive line. With Nate Solder a top-5 LT in place they have also now added Kevin Zeitler (trade with Browns) who is one of the best guards in the game and drafted Will Hernandez who has played exceptionally well to start the year. When you can’t run block and your QB has under 2.5 seconds to get the ball out, you’re going to have a tough time…just look at the Browns tape from last week once they were down to their 3rd LT. With a better offensive line in place we are confident Saquon is going to get more room to roam and Eli will have time to make more of the throws that got him two rings. Our models have this as NYG -0.5, so we are pretty much forced to take the home team with points (+2 at time of writing). In an ideal world, we would see some stabilization from this Giants D before hopping in on them, but the Bills are quite erratic in their own right and pulled a rabbit out of hat last week against the Jets. We are very confident this Bills offense won’t have the efficiency and production the G-men ran into last week and that is enough to trust the numbers and take the home dog.
[3.3 Units] Arizona Cardinals (+13) at Baltimore Ravens - WIN
3.3 Units – ARI +10.5
No Action – ARI +10 or less
We demoted Arizona down to 3.3 units last week and are going to do the same for Week 2. With the dramatic off-season changes that occurred with their staff, system, and a rookie QB, we still want to build some more sample size before we go full trust on our numbers. It was a pretty ugly game for them last week against Detroit, but at the end of the day, they got it done in the 2nd half/OT and were able to get a tie for the cover. The Air Raid vs. this innovative Ravens’ defense is a very interesting matchup. In short, our models don’t suddenly think the Ravens are the best team in football, nor do they have the Cardinals as bad as most of the public appears to think. We will cautiously take the almost two-touchdown spread and hope the Cardinals can contain Lamar a little better than the Dolphins did last week.
New York Jets (+2.5) at Cleveland Browns - NO BET
We will be back on Monday with the final decision/write-up for this game. Obviously, the spread has moved to +6.5 with the illness for Sam Darnold, so our commentary will be on the live market line on Monday instead of basing it off the SuperContest spread. We will still maintain our record for reporting purposes based on the +2.5, but understand this game is unique.