NFL Week 17 and Season Pick Recap

Each week we'll be providing our pick recap to validate our performance and give everyone an in depth view of what our subscribers receive. Let's have a look at the selections below from week 17. 

The GreenZone had yet again another positive weekend going 3-2, and  returning 3.9 Units! With that the GreenZone now has four consecutive winning regular NFL seasons!! Straight Bets are up 45.25 Units on the year, and exotics are up 12.85 Units! Bringing our season cumulative total to +58.1 Units good for a 58.1% return on a $10,000 bankroll.

The Yellow and RedZone were down as they finished 4-7, the system overall had a tough weekend going 7-9 straight up. Above is a breakdown of the entire Zone performances, along with Bankroll return based on our recommended unit sizing of each GreenZone game and exotic wagers. For the record we only recommend and count towards our units the GreenZone games. 

Our published write-up and picks for Week 17 is below:

It’s the finnnaaaaal countdowwwwnnnn.  Here we are again, another winning season where we have returned over 50% over a several month period.  This season had a lot of sideways grind to it, but we stayed the course and have ourselves in a position where we can head into the playoffs with a very juicy bankroll and still more time to add units as we seem to do every post-season.  If there is ever a caveat week, Week 17 is it.  Every year there are a bunch of games where the desire for teams to win is in question.  The data is great later in the year, as there has been a lot of it accumulated with this year’s version of the roster.  That being said, Week 17 is a whole different beast.  We, as always, do our best to get as much qualitative research as we can possibly accumulate and make as informed of a decision as we can.  If a team doesn’t have starters going (Saints) or they don’t have any chance at making the playoffs (Bengals and Falcons) we know it.  Nothing we are suggesting is by chance…it’s all been evaluated.  Random bounces, kick return TDs and fumble 6s will undoubtedly derail good plays throughout the year, but the one thing you can bank on is the boys of ProMathletics working our tails off to put us all in the best position possible.  It’s been a great 2018 season, we appreciate all of you as subscribers, and are looking forward to a great run from here until the final dance in Atlanta in February.

For the exotics, we have our now standard 5-team teaser and parlay.  For both of those wagers it is going to be “to-risk” 0.5 Units on: TEN, ATL, CHI, CIN, and NO.  Let’s bring in the New Year and waltz into the playoffs with a fat bankroll.

Exotic Bets this Week

[0.5 Units] 5-Game Parlay: CHI, NO, TEN, ATL, CIN - LOSS

[0.5 Units] 5-Game Teaser: CHI, NO, TEN, ATL, CIN - LOSS

 

6.6 Units] Tennessee Titans (+3) at home with the Colts - LOSS

6.6 Units – TEN +1 or more

3.3 Units – Pick ‘em

No Action – TEN -1 or more

The final Sunday Night Football game of the year will be the most meaningful one of the season.  This is a true “play-in” game, with whatever team wins making the playoffs as the second AFC Wildcard, and whatever teams loses heading to the beach and waiting for next season.  Any “motivation” questions are completely out the window here, as we essentially have a playoff game this week.  Our models have the Titans as anywhere from 1 to 3.5-point favorite in this game, caveats aside.  The Colts have been hot down the stretch, and the public does seem to really love them right now, despite their plodding performance against the Giants last week (which we cashed on, by the way).  The one real caveat in this matchup is Mariota got banged up last week.  He is officially listed as questionable as of Saturday morning, but he practiced on Thursday and Friday and is optimistic he will be able to go on Sunday night.  Even if he is not, we are still comfortable being on the Titans getting a full field goal at home.  They are a completely different team at home this year, going 6-1 at home vs. just 3-5 on the road.  Additionally, the Colts are very banged up across the board.  They will be without impactful starting center, Ryan Kelly, and have seven other players listed as questionable, with a mixture of some who have not practiced all week.  This is the purest true matchup of the week and it is a textbook GreenZone game all the way.  Let’s finish the 2018 regular season with a home dog cover in the closing game.

 

[6.6 Units] Atlanta Falcons (+1) at Tampa Bay - WIN

6.6 Units – ATL -1 or less

3.3 Units – ATL -1.5 to -2.5

No Action – ATL -3 or more

This matchup is one where neither team has playoff hopes, but we have to believe that pride matters for the Atlanta Falcons.  The 6-9 (nice) Falcons had another disappointing season and couldn’t seem to catch any breaks with the injury bug.  That being said, they still have a lot of weapons on offense (Julio, Sanu, and Calvin Ridley) and have been competing down the stretch, winning their last two games.  Matt Ryan is a consummate professional and a stabilizing force within the organization and Dan Quinn is not going anywhere after this season.  On the other side of the field, the Bucs appear to be in disarray… It would be a miracle if Dirk Koetter coaches another game for Tampa Bay, Jameis Winston’s future is up in the air, Desean Jackson is getting publicly exposed for being a bad teammate, and it seems as if everyone’s “give a fuck” levels are greatly diminished.  The numbers have us on Atlanta in this game and there isn’t enough proof for us to argue against it.  It is always worrisome when you are taking a side in Week 17 who doesn’t technically have anything to play for, but we have to remember these are all professionals playing and coaching for their next contract in a “what have you done for me lately” league.  This is a divisional game and it’s unlikely the Falcons are going to not show up and try to get one more in the W column.  We are going to trust our numbers here and hope Matty Ice doesn’t want to get shown up by the Jameis/Fitzpatrick soup sandwich of a QB situation in Tampa.  

 

[6.6 Units] Chicago Bears (+4.5) at Minnesota - WIN

6.6 Units – CHI +2.5 or more

3.3 Units – CHI +2

No Action – CHI +1.5 or less

The Chicago Bears are a better football team than the Minnesota Vikings.  Period.  The line in this game is a reflection of the public’s evaluation of the “motivation factor” in this game.  The Vikings need a win to make the playoffs, whereas the Bears have at least the 3rd seed in the NFC locked up…that’s why this isn’t pick ‘em like it would be if it wasn’t Week 17.  We are going to once again trust our numbers and hope that what Matt Nagy is publicly saying proves to be true.  He has come out and said that they are not in a position to rest starters and still need to win for playoff implications…which is technically true.  If the Rams stub their toe and lose against San Francisco, the Bears could grab the #2 slot and a first round bye in the playoffs.  Additionally, if the Bears lose to the Vikings…it is highly likely that the Bears will have to turn around and play, you guessed it, the Vikings in the Wildcard round.  Losing to a team in Week 17 and then turning around and playing them the next week is not something you want to do against a divisional rival.  The Bears would be much happier to knock the Vikings out of the playoffs and then probably get the Eagles who they would be more heavily favored against in the WC round.  As with all of these games, we can create storylines in our heads all we want, but the bottom line is the Bears are a better team that is getting critical points more than they should be.

 

[5.5 Units] Cincinnati Bengals (+14.5) at Pittsburgh - WIN

5.5 Units – CIN +14 or more

2.75 Units – CIN +13 or +13.5

No Action – CIN +12.5 or less

We have been on a whole host of these two-touchdown spreads this year and done quite well.  Honestly, there have been a handful of others that we’ve kicked that have gone on to be winners as well.  We’ve said it once, we’ve said it a thousand times, a two-touchdown+ spread is a “best in the league” vs. “worst in the league” type of line.  It is very difficult to win by over 14-points in this league.  If this was not Week 17 and the Bengals didn’t have “nothing to play for” and the Steelers needed a win and some help to make the playoffs, this line would probably be about 10-points.  Our bet is that the Bengals, who absolutely hate the Steelers, will not lay down in the final week of the season and let the 8-6-1, closing in on almost league average-ish, team walk all over them.  Yes, Cincinnati is banged up…they have been for pretty much the entire second half of the season.  The team they are putting out there on Sunday is going to be pretty much what it has been for the last month.  We are comfortable with the situation and love only needing to lose by 14 to get a cover in what has become one of the most heated rivalries in the NFL over the last 5 years.  

 

[5.5 Units] New Orleans Saints (-8.5) at home with the Panthers - LOSS

5.5 Units – NO -8.5 or less

2.75 Units – NO -9

No Action – NO -9.5 or more

This line has come down to -7 in favor of the Saints at time of writing.  It is official that Drew Brees will not be playing as well as some starting offensive linemen who have been nicked up.  Sean Payton has stated there may be some others getting rest, but hasn’t gone into specifics.  There is no doubt that the resting of starters diminishes the value of this Saints squad.  That being said, let’s take a deeper look at the Panthers situation.  They are starting a rookie QB who has had about 3 days to prepare against a top-10 defense that plays like a top-3 defense when they are in the friendly confines of their extremely loud dome.  That is NOT an ideal situation for a 22-year old kid getting his first NFL start.  This is a guy who wasn’t even on an NFL roster for almost two months this season.  The handful of weeks he has been on the Panthers it was as a scout team player…not even running the Panthers offense.  An undrafted QB who played in Air Raid offenses at Texas A&M and Houston would need some time to develop and learn NFL offensive play…when we say “time” we mean like multiple years of learning as a back-up.  This guy has had less than a week.  We know the Saints have nothing to play for.  That is not ideal.  But, at the end of the day, there are only 53 men on an active NFL roster.  Our bet here is that the Saints cannot rest enough guys on defense to make them not eat Kyle Allen alive.  Additionally, the Saints are still starting a proven guy in Teddy Bridgewater who has been backing up Brees all year, getting comfortable with the offense, learning, etc.  Oh, and by the way, they will assuredly get Taysom Hill a bunch of wildcat touches who is already a proven producer in this Sean Payton scheme.  The public is going to be on the Panthers and we are more than happy to be on the other side when this loaded Saints team tries to give their home-town crowd some juice heading into the post-season where they will be needing their support to fuel another trip to the Super Bowl. 


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