NFL Week 16 Monday Night Football - Broncos at Raiders GreenZone Prediction
Another great Sunday in the books for us, as we went 4-0 for the perfect start to Week 16. We had a total of 5 GreenZone games this week and it just so happened that all five of them were on road teams. We look to make it a 5-0 week and hit our parlay and teaser tonight in the final Monday Night Football game of the 2018 season. With our 4-0 we are +22 Units on the week and do have a big upside still on the table with the parlay and teaser hanging out there.
There is no "right" answer when deciding whether to hedge or not. Our bet sizing methodology and bankroll management is based on not hedging, but if you want to lock in profits to pay for some extra last-minute gifts, we can't tell you that's not correct for one's individual situation.
Denver Broncos (-2.5) at Oakland
6.6 Units – DEN -3 or less
3.3 Units – DEN -3.5 or -4
No Action – DEN -4.5 or more
Our models have this game as anywhere from a 4 to a 7-point victory in favor of the Broncos. The Broncos did let us down last week, but that was not as a result of a lack of effort. They ran into a very hot Browns squad who happened to make a couple more plays on that particular night. The Raiders, on the other hand, are the opposite of hot. They are 3-11 and have about as stripped down of a roster as one could imagine. If you look back at the Week 3 matchup when the Broncos snuck past the Raiders you will see the leading leading receiver was Amari Cooper who had 10 catches for 116 yards and the leading rusher for the Raiders was Marshawn Lynch who had 18 carries. Got news for ya, they are playing with far less firepower than the first time around.
The one concern we do have is that the motivation in this game is not tangible for either team. The Broncos have been eliminated from playoff contention, but Vance Joseph appears to have the respect of the locker room and it Is clear he is coaching for his job these last couple of weeks. The Denver defense is still in our top-5 and is very good against the pass. We don’t expect the Raiders to have much success against this premier group, which is far and away the strongest unit for either team in this game. The Raiders have a worst-3 in the league defense and a well-below league average offense. We can try to create storylines about who is more motivated until the cows come home, but the most important factors are the players taking the field. There is far more talent on the Broncos sideline and you have to assume those guys are going to be trying to pad their sack, int, etc. stats against a bad team. We will back the numbers and hope the Monday Night Football lights have the Broncs ready to let it rip.